Largest Probability-Weighted Target Upside
General and impersonal investment research. Not personal financial advice. Forecasts, valuations and model outputs are estimates and may be wrong. See Investment Disclaimer.
Screen output — not a recommendation. How each ranking is defined.
Probability-weighted 12-month scenario target relative to price (PW target ÷ price − 1). Ratings as of 2026-10-10 (today) for most names; a few held names carry earlier dates.
The forecast record, beside the forecasts. Across 478 scored pre-registered anchors (of 480), the direction implied by our targets has been right 55.2% of the time, above the 50% a coin flip would give, by more than sampling noise at this sample size. Read as probabilities, the targets score worse than a coin flip: a proxy Brier score of 0.253 against 0.25 (lower is better); the probabilities are reconstructed from the price targets, because the engine only began publishing its own on 2026-08-04. Samples are thin and windows short; nothing is settled in either direction. Full accuracy record →
Ranking 830 of 881 covered names with pw target vs price data; top 25 shown.
| # | Company | Rating | PW target vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dutch Bros Inc.BROS | BUY | +78.0% |
| 2 | Builders FirstSourceBLDR | BUY | +68.0% |
| 3 | Dentsply SironaXRAY | BUY | +67.0% |
| 4 | Nexstar Media GroupNXST | BUY | +63.0% |
| 5 | MGM ResortsMGM | BUY | +62.0% |
| 6 | PVH Corp.PVH | BUY | +61.0% |
| 7 | Olin CorporationOLN | BUY | +60.0% |
| 8 | RHRH | BUY | +57.0% |
| 9 | Dick's Sporting GoodsDKS | BUY | +56.0% |
| 10 | MasTecMTZ | BUY | +55.0% |
| 11 | Lennox InternationalLII | BUY | +55.0% |
| 12 | Bath & Body Works, Inc.BBWI | BUY | +54.0% |
| 13 | Wyndham Hotels & ResortsWH | BUY | +53.0% |
| 14 | Capri HoldingsCPRI | BUY | +53.0% |
| 15 | Dycom IndustriesDY | BUY | +50.0% |
| 16 | Avis Budget GroupCAR | BUY | +48.0% |
| 17 | AAONAAON | BUY | +48.0% |
| 18 | UFP IndustriesUFPI | BUY | +47.0% |
| 19 | PG&E CorporationPCG | BUY | +47.0% |
| 20 | PentairPNR | BUY | +43.0% |
| 21 | Carpenter TechnologyCRS | BUY | +43.0% |
| 22 | Macy'sM | BUY | +41.0% |
| 23 | AptivAPTV | BUY | +41.0% |
| 24 | Scotts Miracle-Gro CompanySMG | BUY | +40.0% |
| 25 | Hilton Grand VacationsHGV | BUY | +37.0% |
Change tracking is unavailable for this metric — its source feed keeps no history. The four ROS-native rankings (fair value vs price, expected return, quality, moat) carry day-over-day motion.
Other rankings: Top Fair-Value Upside · Most Overvalued · Biggest Drawdown · Closest to 52-Week Low · Closest to 52-Week High · Lowest Forward P/E · Highest Forward P/E · Largest by Market Cap · Best Bull / Bear Scenario Ratio · Largest Fair Value vs Price (Engine Field) · Highest MCH Estimated 12-Month Return · Lowest Downside Probability · Highest Quality · Widest Moat · Biggest House-vs-Consensus