Options

Best-executed hedges this week

FORECAST — expected outcome, not realised return. Performance policy

General and impersonal investment research. Not personalised investment advice. Forecasts, valuations and model outputs are estimates and may be wrong. See Investment Disclaimer.

What this list is. Ranked on confidence-adjusted expected value against the market's own price, the frequency of the downside, probability of profit and execution quality. Maximum payoff is reported and never ranked on. Structures are ordered by a single score built from confidence-adjusted expected value against the market’s own price, how often the downside is reached, probability of profit, and how cheaply the position can actually be opened.

Equity research as of 2026-09-09 (today) · Option chain as of 2026-09-08 · 1d old

What was thrown away first. Of 160,606 listed contracts across the names covered, just 25,985 (16.2%) were liquid enough to build a structure from — the rest were rejected on too little open interest (97,562), no usable bid (21,477) and a spread too wide to cross (15,582). That filter runs before any structure is assembled, so the ranking never sees the illiquid part of the chain.

What was withheld, and why. The option chain for AVB, NSA, TMHC, WBS was more than 3 trading days behind the rest of the book (21d behind 2026-09-08; 47d behind 2026-09-08; 20d behind 2026-09-08), so those names were dropped rather than priced off a frozen quote. 2 rows — LUV Protective Put (if held), WMT Long Strangle — priced at an expected value far outside anything else in the same table (robust z above 5, and more than 10pp from the table median). The option arithmetic is correct; the scenario set behind it puts too much probability above today’s price. The row is withheld, not adjusted, and the slot goes to the next-ranked structure.

Why it is mostly hedges. 5,346 structures were built and assessed in full; 1,745 rank across 654 names, and each table below shows its top structures. Once the cost of crossing the spread is charged, most option structures carry negative expected value, which is what a roughly fairly priced market looks like. What survives is cheap to put on and bounded in what it can lose — a hedge.

Income

Structures that collect premium. Ranked on what is left after the cost of opening them, not on the premium collected.

#	Underlying	Structure	Score	Adj. EV	Cost to open	Total loss	Profit odds	Liquidity	Max payoff*
1	NBIX	Covered Call (if held) Short 160 C · 2027-12-17 · 465d	70.7	-0.1%	0.9%	0.0%	74.4%	Tradeable in size	26.0%
2	WM	Covered Call (if held) Short 220 C · 2027-01-15 · 129d	70.7	-0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	63.0%	Tradeable in size	6.0%
3	TSLA	Put Spread (income) Short 330 P / Long 200 P · 2027-12-17 · 465d	70.1	-0.6%	0.6%	14.2%	60.8%	Tradeable in size	43.0%
4	TSLA	Put Spread (income) Short 350 P / Long 200 P · 2027-12-17 · 465d	69.9	-0.5%	0.5%	14.2%	57.9%	Tradeable in size	48.0%
5	XYL	Covered Call (if held) Short 110 C · 2026-10-16 · 38d	69.8	-0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	62.8%	Tradeable in size	4.0%
6	CI	Covered Call (if held) Short 280 C · 2027-01-15 · 129d	69.7	-0.2%	0.2%	0.0%	65.0%	Tradeable in size	9.0%
7	PG	Covered Call (if held) Short 150 C · 2026-11-20 · 73d	69.6	-0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	60.9%	Tradeable in size	6.0%
8	TMUS	Covered Call (if held) Short 185 C · 2027-03-19 · 192d	69.5	-0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	63.3%	Tradeable in size	11.0%
9	KMI	Covered Call (if held) Short 32 C · 2026-09-18 · 10d	69.5	-0.2%	0.2%	0.0%	66.2%	Tradeable in size	2.0%
10	AMZN	Covered Call (if held) Short 260 C · 2028-01-21 · 500d	69.5	-0.2%	0.2%	0.0%	66.6%	Tradeable in size	21.0%
11	GOOGL	Covered Call (if held) Short 340 C · 2028-12-15 · 829d	69.5	-0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	66.2%	Tradeable in size	26.0%
12	CB	Covered Call (if held) Short 350 C · 2028-01-21 · 500d	69.4	-0.5%	0.5%	0.0%	67.2%	Tradeable in size	15.0%
13	SO	Covered Call (if held) Short 90 C · 2026-11-20 · 73d	69.4	-0.3%	0.2%	0.0%	63.1%	Tradeable in size	4.0%
14	AMZN	Covered Call (if held) Short 260 C · 2028-12-15 · 829d	69.3	-0.3%	0.3%	0.0%	67.0%	Tradeable in size	28.0%
15	CB	Covered Call (if held) Short 340 C · 2027-06-17 · 282d	69.3	-0.5%	0.5%	0.0%	68.0%	Tradeable in size	10.0%
16	KMB	Covered Call (if held) Short 105 C · 2026-12-18 · 101d	69.3	-0.2%	0.2%	0.0%	62.3%	Tradeable in size	7.0%
17	WST	Covered Call (if held) Short 340 C · 2026-12-18 · 101d	69.3	-0.6%	0.6%	0.0%	69.4%	Tradeable in size	8.0%
18	GOOGL	Covered Call (if held) Short 340 C · 2028-01-21 · 500d	69.3	+0.2%	0.2%	0.0%	65.6%	Tradeable in size	19.0%
19	BRK-B	Covered Call (if held) Short 530 C · 2028-12-15 · 829d	69.3	-0.3%	0.3%	0.0%	74.0%	Tradeable in size	20.0%
20	LHX	Covered Call (if held) Short 260 C · 2027-01-15 · 129d	69.2	-0.3%	0.2%	0.0%	64.4%	Tradeable in size	8.0%

Leverage

Directional structures with defined risk. Expected shortfall sits at its floor for essentially all of these, so the downside is described by how often total loss occurs rather than how deep it goes.

#	Underlying	Structure	Score	Adj. EV	Cost to open	Total loss	Profit odds	Liquidity	Max payoff*
1	PVH	Long Call (LEAPS) Long 35 C · 2028-01-21 · 500d	77.4	+32.6%	3.8%	10.4%	45.9%	Tradeable in size	—
2	CAVA	Bear Put Spread Long 85 P / Short 35 P · 2028-01-21 · 500d	75.0	+15.0%	3.4%	13.9%	69.5%	Tradeable in size	86.0%
3	HON	Long Call (LEAPS) Long 120 C · 2028-01-21 · 500d	74.9	+15.0%	1.9%	8.3%	45.3%	Tradeable in size	—
4	KO	Bear Put Spread Long 87.5 P / Short 50 P · 2028-01-21 · 500d	72.6	+31.5%	4.0%	42.0%	46.2%	Tradeable in size	449.0%
5	PVH	Long Call Long 40 C · 2027-03-19 · 192d	70.9	+9.5%	3.8%	4.7%	47.1%	Tradeable in size	—
6	LUV	Long Call (LEAPS) Long 37.5 C · 2028-01-21 · 500d	70.1	+39.3%	3.3%	51.9%	32.9%	Tradeable in size	—
7	BAC	Bear Put Spread Long 62.5 P / Short 40 P · 2028-01-21 · 500d	69.8	+18.6%	4.1%	40.2%	46.9%	Tradeable in size	293.0%
8	FIX	Long Call Long 980 C · 2026-12-18 · 101d	69.7	-0.8%	1.1%	6.4%	42.5%	Tradeable in size	—
9	MA	Bear Put Spread Long 600 P / Short 510 P · 2028-01-21 · 500d	69.5	+8.5%	9.3%	33.3%	58.1%	Tradeable in size	143.0%
10	AXP	Long Call Long 240 C · 2027-04-16 · 220d	69.2	-1.0%	1.1%	7.5%	41.6%	Tradeable in size	—
11	LIN	Long Call (LEAPS) Long 300 C · 2028-01-21 · 500d	69.2	-0.5%	1.4%	7.5%	40.9%	Tradeable in size	—
12	HOOD	Bear Put Spread Long 115 P / Short 60 P · 2028-01-21 · 500d	68.9	+12.5%	5.9%	29.5%	59.2%	Tradeable in size	127.0%
13	GD	Long Call Long 310 C · 2026-11-20 · 73d	68.0	-2.8%	2.8%	8.7%	44.0%	Tradeable in size	—
14	HOOD	Bear Put Spread Long 115 P / Short 80 P · 2028-01-21 · 500d	68.0	+7.2%	9.4%	29.4%	62.8%	Tradeable in size	100.0%
15	CVX	Bear Put Spread Long 210 P / Short 175 P · 2028-01-21 · 500d	68.0	+9.8%	6.9%	39.2%	53.2%	Tradeable in size	155.0%
16	MGM	Long Call (LEAPS) Long 37 C · 2028-01-21 · 500d	67.9	+43.4%	9.8%	47.6%	34.7%	Tradeable in size	—
17	WEX	Long Call Long 140 C · 2026-11-20 · 73d	67.8	-4.8%	2.3%	6.3%	42.4%	Tradeable in size	—
18	EME	Long Call Long 520 C · 2027-04-16 · 220d	67.8	-1.2%	1.2%	11.7%	39.6%	Tradeable in size	—
19	M	Long Call (LEAPS) Long 22 C · 2028-01-21 · 500d	67.5	+48.3%	5.1%	54.0%	33.6%	Tradeable in size	—
20	CMCSA	Long Call Long 24 C · 2026-09-18 · 10d	67.1	-5.6%	7.5%	5.7%	50.9%	Tradeable in size	—

Hedge

Protection for an existing holding. Capital at risk is the underlying position, so unlike the defined-risk structures above the tail genuinely varies and can be ordered on.

#	Underlying	Structure	Score	Adj. EV	Cost to open	Total loss	Profit odds	Liquidity	Max payoff*
1	SO	Protective Put (if held) Long 87.5 P · 2027-01-15 · 129d	70.0	+0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	37.3%	Tradeable in size	—
2	CLX	Protective Put (if held) Long 90 P · 2026-10-16 · 38d	69.5	-0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	37.2%	Tradeable in size	—
3	ROL	Protective Put (if held) Long 32.5 P · 2027-02-19 · 164d	69.5	+1.3%	0.1%	0.0%	39.9%	Tradeable in size	—
4	DECK	Protective Collar (if held) Long 75 P / Short 90 C · 2027-03-19 · 192d	69.4	+0.0%	0.7%	0.0%	50.7%	Tradeable in size	11.0%
5	LHX	Protective Put (if held) Long 240 P · 2027-02-19 · 164d	69.4	+0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	37.8%	Tradeable in size	—
6	UPS	Protective Put (if held) Long 95 P · 2026-10-16 · 38d	69.4	+0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	44.1%	Tradeable in size	—
7	NOC	Protective Collar (if held) Long 500 P / Short 520 C · 2026-11-20 · 73d	69.3	-0.6%	0.6%	0.0%	55.2%	Tradeable in size	3.0%
8	HON	Protective Put (if held) Long 165 P · 2028-01-21 · 500d	69.3	+7.7%	0.3%	0.0%	43.8%	Tradeable in size	—
9	LUV	Protective Put (if held) Long 37.5 P · 2026-10-16 · 38d	69.2	+1.1%	0.2%	0.0%	40.7%	Tradeable in size	—
10	AA	Protective Put (if held) Long 50 P · 2026-10-16 · 38d	69.2	-0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	36.7%	Tradeable in size	—
11	LHX	Protective Collar (if held) Long 240 P / Short 300 C · 2027-02-19 · 164d	69.1	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	44.1%	Tradeable in size	16.0%
12	PG	Protective Put (if held) Long 135 P · 2026-11-20 · 73d	69.0	-0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	42.3%	Tradeable in size	—
13	CME	Protective Put (if held) Long 270 P · 2026-10-16 · 38d	69.0	-0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	39.1%	Tradeable in size	—
14	PWR	Protective Put (if held) Long 600 P · 2026-10-16 · 38d	69.0	+0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	40.7%	Tradeable in size	—
15	XOM	Protective Put (if held) Long 150 P · 2026-12-18 · 101d	69.0	-0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	38.1%	Tradeable in size	—
16	DECK	Protective Put (if held) Long 80 P · 2027-01-15 · 129d	69.0	+0.6%	0.2%	0.0%	35.8%	Tradeable in size	—
17	UPS	Protective Put (if held) Long 100 P · 2026-10-16 · 38d	68.9	-0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	36.3%	Tradeable in size	—
18	BLK	Protective Put (if held) Long 1020 P · 2026-12-18 · 101d	68.9	-0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	38.2%	Tradeable in size	—
19	VFC	Protective Put (if held) Long 12.5 P · 2027-01-15 · 129d	68.9	+1.4%	0.3%	0.0%	38.0%	Tradeable in size	—
20	ECL	Protective Put (if held) Long 260 P · 2026-10-16 · 38d	68.9	-0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	44.2%	Tradeable in size	—

Volatility

Structures whose thesis is the SIZE of the move rather than its direction, admitted under AM-017. They are only built for a name whose IV/RV sits in the top or bottom quartile of the estate on the same date — roughly half the book has no volatility view and carries none of these. Long-vol and short-vol are never built for the same name: they lose money in opposite states of the world, so they are not ranked against each other on one scale.

#	Underlying	Structure	Score	Adj. EV	Cost to open	Total loss	Profit odds	Liquidity	Max payoff*
1	ABT	Long Strangle Long 105 P / Long 110 C · 2027-01-15 · 129d	71.5	+7.0%	3.1%	10.3%	47.9%	Tradeable in size	—
2	PYPL	Long Strangle Long 50 P / Long 55 C · 2028-01-21 · 500d	69.2	+0.5%	5.8%	7.4%	50.4%	Tradeable in size	—
3	AAPL	Long Strangle Long 310 P / Long 320 C · 2028-01-21 · 500d	68.9	-1.7%	1.7%	4.6%	37.7%	Tradeable in size	—
4	GEV	Long Strangle Long 960 P / Long 1010 C · 2027-06-17 · 282d	68.5	-2.3%	1.9%	5.3%	38.4%	Tradeable in size	—
5	LRCX	Long Strangle Long 320 P / Long 340 C · 2027-03-19 · 192d	68.5	-2.3%	2.1%	5.9%	39.4%	Tradeable in size	—
6	TMUS	Long Strangle Long 180 P / Long 185 C · 2027-03-19 · 192d	68.3	-2.1%	2.1%	5.9%	37.7%	Tradeable in size	—
7	VRT	Long Strangle Long 280 P / Long 300 C · 2027-06-17 · 282d	67.9	-2.7%	2.6%	5.8%	38.2%	Tradeable in size	—
8	NVDA	Long Strangle Long 225 P / Long 235 C · 2028-01-21 · 500d	67.5	+1.4%	0.8%	4.6%	35.6%	Tradeable in size	—
9	IFF	Long Strangle Long 85 P / Long 87.5 C · 2026-11-20 · 73d	67.4	+7.1%	6.0%	9.2%	42.0%	Tradeable in size	—
10	BAC	Iron Condor Short 62.5 C / Long 65 C / Short 60 P / Long 40 P · 2028-01-21 · 500d	67.2	-9.1%	2.5%	12.1%	59.5%	Tradeable in size	40.0%
11	ACM	Long Strangle Long 65 P / Long 70 C · 2026-12-18 · 101d	66.8	+5.2%	7.2%	12.8%	51.3%	Tradeable in size	—
12	CMG	Long Strangle Long 35 P / Long 37.5 C · 2027-06-17 · 282d	66.7	-1.7%	3.9%	9.3%	36.4%	Tradeable in size	—
13	MSFT	Long Strangle Long 490 P / Long 510 C · 2028-01-21 · 500d	65.8	-1.9%	1.4%	5.5%	34.4%	Tradeable in size	—
14	ONTO	Long Strangle Long 280 P / Long 290 C · 2026-12-18 · 101d	65.0	-4.1%	4.1%	4.2%	39.5%	Tradeable in size	—
15	AMAT	Long Strangle Long 450 P / Long 490 C · 2028-01-21 · 500d	65.0	-2.7%	3.3%	5.5%	36.4%	Tradeable in size	—
16	COIN	Long Strangle Long 165 P / Long 180 C · 2028-01-21 · 500d	65.0	-7.4%	4.9%	4.4%	33.2%	Tradeable in size	—
17	DDOG	Long Strangle Long 210 P / Long 220 C · 2027-03-19 · 192d	64.5	-4.7%	3.1%	5.1%	36.7%	Tradeable in size	—
18	WDAY	Long Strangle Long 185 P / Long 195 C · 2027-01-15 · 129d	64.4	-4.5%	6.4%	7.1%	46.5%	Tradeable in size	—
19	LITE	Long Strangle Long 900 P / Long 1500 C · 2028-12-15 · 829d	63.0	-2.6%	2.6%	13.5%	34.3%	Tradeable in size	—
20	OLN	Long Strangle Long 17.5 P / Long 20 C · 2028-01-21 · 500d	62.4	-9.5%	9.5%	9.2%	39.8%	Tradeable in size	—

Track record

Nothing has settled yet, so there is no performance to report. The record itself exists: 79 structures across 60 names and 9 families, each recorded at entry (legs, price, capital at risk) in a hash-chained ledger from 2026-08-05. The first expires 2026-08-21 and the last 2027-06-17; they settle as they expire and are never backfilled. Families are separate cohorts, never pooled.

1 withdrawn. A structure taken off this page stays in the record: the registration stands and the withdrawal is recorded beside it with its date and reason. A withdrawn trade is carried as neither live nor settled.

Withheld by analyst review: ACI. These names are excluded from the ranking entirely — the same hold that stops their research report being published now stops them appearing here.

This ranking was published from 2026-07-31 and its forward record opens 2026-08-05: for those five days no structure was pre-registered, because the path from a ranked row to the ledger did not exist. That week is NOT reconstructed — backfilling pre-registrations after the outcomes have begun is not a record of anything.

The previous ranking’s record, reported separately. 60,078 structures pre-registered, 55,557 still open since 2026-07-28, 4,521 settled. 1,429 duplicate registrations are excluded from that count rather than netted off in silence. Those structures were selected under different rules, so the two records are kept apart and never pooled.

Where the return comes from. Our own backtest attributes essentially all of this sleeve’s historical return to the volatility risk premium — implied volatility persistently above realised — not to any ranking. The edge tested as systematic, not selective, and the sample is optimistic on frictions: a screen over a known premium, not evidence of selection.

What this cannot tell you

Volatility structures compete for the same per-name candidate budget as everything else (the most tradeable few per name are carried forward). Their introduction therefore displaced structures from the other tables — 243 admitted, 171 displaced — so rows in Income, Leverage and Hedge can change without anything about those structures changing.
Held to expiry — early exercise and assignment are not modelled.
The option chain is an end-of-day snapshot; there is no per-contract quote timestamp, so quote freshness cannot be measured and is not claimed.
The house distribution is the engine's own persisted quantile grid, sampled exactly where that grid exists and reconstructed from stored moments where it does not. Each row says which it got, and a reconstruction carries its own error.
The house view is a valuation distribution at a one-year horizon, re-horizoned to each option's expiry — drift scaled linearly in time, dispersion as its square root. It is not a forecast of the path in between, and for short expiries most of the house's conviction is scaled away, by design.
No forward track record exists for this ranking. The v1 record continues separately and the two are never pooled.
MCH is not a registered financial adviser. Nothing here is advice or an executable quote.