Alpha Lab
SIMULATED — hypothetical, assumptions apply. Performance policyGeneral and impersonal investment research. Not personal financial advice. Forecasts, valuations and model outputs are estimates and may be wrong. See Investment Disclaimer.
Screen output — not a recommendation. How each ranking is defined.
Every covered name with its decision layer: conviction, expected-return distribution and rules stance, described by the published methodology. Sortable, filterable, exportable. 891 names · 30 held out, not refreshed by this run · Research as of 2026-10-13 (today).
Rating and stance answer different questions, and neither overrides the other. Rating is the valuation verdict — what the name is worth against what it costs. Stance is a separate rules overlay: six pre-registered rules on valuation, street revisions, earnings quality, trend and volatility, tallied into Increase / Hold / Reduce / Exit. The stance is barred from feeding back into the rating — the engine records does_not_alter_rating and a QA check recomputes the rating to prove it moved nothing. So STRONG BUY with stance Hold is not a contradiction: it reads “cheap on our numbers, but nothing has triggered that would make us add today”. Hold is also the default when no rule fires, which is most names — it means “no rule tripped”, not an instruction to hold.
A stance also only moves once the evidence is strong enough to justify changing what was last published, so a row can show a stance the rules no longer read. Those rows are marked ▪ held, with what the rules currently read in the Rules read column.
The forecast record, beside the forecasts. Across 478 scored pre-registered anchors (of 480), the direction implied by our targets has been right 54.6% of the time, above the 50% a coin flip would give, by more than sampling noise at this sample size. Read as probabilities, the targets score worse than a coin flip: a proxy Brier score of 0.253 against 0.25 (lower is better); the probabilities are reconstructed from the price targets, because the engine only began publishing its own on 2026-08-04. The tier figures were corrected on 2026-08-04: they had been scored against a pre-render field carrying only three tiers. By published rating, against each name’s sector ETF (a BUY counts as a hit when it beats it, a SELL when it trails it, a HOLD when it ends within 5 points of it): BUY: 40.0% hits, average alpha +7.7% on 5 scored; HOLD: 30.4%, −2.3% on 418; SELL: 59.1%, −0.2% on 44; STRONG SELL: 33.3%, −1.0% on 6. STRONG BUY: none of its 2 anchors could be scored. Samples are thin and windows short; nothing is settled in either direction. Full accuracy record →
MAS-1Y and MAS-5Y are an unvalidated diagnostic and drive nothing. The MCH Alpha Score blends six blocks into one number that nothing upstream reads; the engine fails its own QA if anything does. A blank cell carries its reason in the column note.
View: | — eight decision columns; Advanced shows every field. CSV export always carries everything.
891 of 891 names. Click a header to sort. Screen output — not a recommendation. Model output for research, not personal financial advice. MAS-1Y / MAS-5Y are an unvalidated diagnostic (λ 0.3), a percentile within this run's coverage — not comparable across runs — struck only inside the hard gates, so a blank is the gate, not missing data; they drive no rating or stance.
| ★ | Ticker | Conviction ▼ | Exp. alpha | Exp. return | Stance | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ☆ | KLAC | 84.1 (100%) | +16.9% | +31.0% | Increase | BUY |
| ☆ | AMAT | 83 (100%) | +12.9% | +26.8% | Hold ▪ held | BUY |
| ☆ | CDNS | 80.3 (100%) | -1.9% | +8.8% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | DUOL | 75.9 (100%) | +25.2% | +34.3% | Increase | BUY |
| ☆ | MA | 75.3 (100%) | -23.2% | -16.2% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | NVDA | 75.2 (99%) | -22.4% | -10.8% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | ADI | 75.1 (99%) | -17.4% | -6.4% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | CB | 74.1 (99%) | -8.1% | -3.1% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | RMD | 73.9 (99%) | -21.6% | -14.4% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | AME | 73.6 (99%) | -12.5% | -3.7% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | MPWR | 73 (99%) | -22.4% | -8.9% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | TT | 72.9 (99%) | -8.5% | +0.8% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | BKNG | 72.7 (99%) | +1.3% | +9.9% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | EXEL | 72.5 (99%) | -12.0% | -4.2% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | ADSK | 72.4 (98%) | -24.2% | -16.6% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | NTRS | 72.4 (98%) | -5.0% | +3.8% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | CME | 72.2 (98%) | -26.9% | -21.7% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | CBOE | 71.8 (98%) | -25.9% | -20.9% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | VICR | 71.8 (98%) | -41.7% | -25.9% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | EW | 71.7 (98%) | -6.1% | +1.6% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | ISRG | 71.7 (98%) | -14.2% | -5.4% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | DDOG | 71.6 (98%) | -25.8% | -16.4% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | WST | 71.5 (98%) | -14.5% | -6.7% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | MCO | 71.4 (97%) | -10.5% | -2.9% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | QCOM | 71.4 (97%) | -10.7% | +1.6% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | LIN | 71.3 (97%) | +1.1% | +7.4% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | PRI | 71.1 (97%) | +1.7% | +9.4% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | GOOGL | 71 (97%) | -27.4% | -17.4% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | TXN | 71 (97%) | -11.0% | -0.7% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | VLTO | 71 (97%) | -19.1% | -12.2% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | CRUS | 70.7 (97%) | +16.5% | +26.9% | Hold | BUY |
| ☆ | DECK | 70.7 (97%) | +12.2% | +21.3% | Hold | BUY |
| ☆ | HWM | 70.6 (96%) | +6.0% | +15.2% | Hold ▪ held | HOLD |
| ☆ | WH | 70.6 (96%) | +48.4% | +57.0% | Increase | BUY |
| ☆ | RMBS | 70.4 (96%) | -17.2% | -0.9% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | BNY | 70.3 (96%) | -9.5% | -1.2% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | STRL | 70.3 (96%) | +12.2% | +27.9% | Increase | BUY |
| ☆ | WAT | 70.3 (96%) | -24.1% | -15.6% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | ADP | 70.2 (96%) | -24.8% | -18.8% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | IDXX | 70.2 (96%) | -5.2% | +3.4% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | GE | 70.1 (95%) | +1.6% | +11.3% | Hold ▪ held | HOLD |
| ☆ | MKTX | 70.1 (95%) | -5.5% | +1.9% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | ETN | 70 (95%) | -17.7% | -6.5% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | NXT | 70 (95%) | +2.0% | +15.9% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | WDC | 70 (95%) | -0.4% | +14.2% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | FTNT | 69.7 (95%) | -32.6% | -23.8% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | MS | 69.7 (95%) | -3.8% | +6.4% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | PG | 69.7 (95%) | -12.3% | -6.3% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | FFIV | 69.6 (94%) | -31.3% | -22.2% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | LOPE | 69.6 (94%) | -11.5% | -4.4% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | CRS | 69.3 (94%) | +38.3% | +48.9% | Hold ▪ held | BUY |
| ☆ | CSCO | 69.2 (94%) | -10.7% | -1.5% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | CW | 69.1 (94%) | +29.4% | +39.5% | Hold | BUY |
| ☆ | FIX | 69.1 (94%) | +0.5% | +13.7% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | ODFL | 69.1 (94%) | +6.1% | +15.0% | Hold ▪ held | BUY |
| ☆ | PGR | 69.1 (94%) | -6.8% | -2.2% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | ZTS | 69.1 (94%) | -8.8% | -1.1% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | RNR | 69 (93%) | -14.7% | -9.9% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | DOCS | 68.8 (93%) | -38.3% | -29.3% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | KNSL | 68.8 (93%) | -1.3% | +5.3% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | TER | 68.8 (93%) | -22.3% | -6.7% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | VEEV | 68.8 (93%) | -53.6% | -45.8% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | ANET | 68.7 (93%) | -37.3% | -25.3% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | INTU | 68.7 (93%) | -24.7% | -17.8% | Hold ▪ held | SELL |
| ☆ | LRCX | 68.7 (93%) | -14.1% | +1.3% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | VRSN | 68.7 (93%) | -21.7% | -15.5% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | VRT | 68.7 (93%) | +5.4% | +19.3% | Hold ▪ held | BUY |
| ☆ | MANH | 68.6 (92%) | -31.2% | -24.3% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | EME | 68.5 (92%) | -11.6% | 0.0% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | QLYS | 68.5 (92%) | -28.7% | -20.6% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | SNA | 68.5 (92%) | +1.7% | +9.4% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | CL | 68.4 (92%) | -3.0% | +2.7% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | ONTO | 68.2 (92%) | -14.5% | +0.7% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | ROK | 68.2 (92%) | -1.6% | +8.5% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | AAPL | 68.1 (91%) | -27.9% | -19.9% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | RL | 67.9 (91%) | -3.9% | +5.8% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | USB | 67.9 (91%) | -4.5% | +3.7% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | JKHY | 67.8 (91%) | -17.4% | -11.5% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | CPRT | 67.7 (91%) | +7.0% | +13.4% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | LITE | 67.7 (91%) | -29.7% | -15.1% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | VRTX | 67.7 (91%) | -15.5% | -8.0% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | PNR | 67.6 (91%) | +36.2% | +46.0% | Hold | BUY |
| ☆ | TJX | 67.6 (91%) | +2.5% | +8.9% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | FORM | 67.5 (90%) | +0.9% | +15.1% | Hold ▪ held | HOLD |
| ☆ | MSFT | 67.5 (90%) | -31.0% | -22.1% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | TTD | 67.5 (90%) | +34.6% | +44.2% | Hold | BUY |
| ☆ | LLY | 67.4 (90%) | -13.9% | -7.0% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | SPGI | 67.4 (90%) | -10.8% | -3.7% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | LII | 67.3 (90%) | +46.8% | +56.8% | Hold | BUY |
| ☆ | ACGL | 67.2 (90%) | -4.9% | +0.3% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | AXP | 67.2 (90%) | +2.7% | +11.6% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | AYI | 67.2 (90%) | +20.5% | +31.8% | Hold ▪ held | BUY |
| ☆ | KEYS | 67.2 (90%) | -21.7% | -10.2% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | NFLX | 67.2 (90%) | -8.6% | -1.6% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | WRB | 67.2 (90%) | -10.6% | -5.5% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | CTAS | 67.1 (89%) | -22.8% | -16.2% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | TPR | 67.1 (89%) | +16.2% | +25.4% | Hold ▪ held | BUY |
| ☆ | BLK | 67 (89%) | -23.8% | -14.2% | Hold ▪ held | SELL |
| ☆ | HLT | 67 (89%) | -9.6% | -1.8% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | RLI | 67 (89%) | +4.6% | +10.5% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | UMBF | 67 (89%) | +2.7% | +11.0% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | SEIC | 66.9 (88%) | -12.5% | -4.8% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | TROW | 66.9 (88%) | -1.7% | +7.0% | Reduce | HOLD |
| ☆ | ADBE | 66.8 (88%) | -22.4% | -15.3% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | GEV | 66.8 (88%) | -13.8% | -1.9% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | MTG | 66.8 (88%) | +1.3% | +8.8% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | PLTR | 66.8 (88%) | -42.5% | -30.8% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | MEDP | 66.7 (88%) | -22.5% | -14.3% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | MSCI | 66.7 (88%) | -10.3% | -3.2% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | MTD | 66.7 (88%) | -28.7% | -20.3% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | META | 66.6 (87%) | -31.8% | -21.5% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | DHR | 66.5 (87%) | -19.6% | -12.3% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | GNRC | 66.5 (87%) | +11.5% | +23.7% | Hold ▪ held | BUY |
| ☆ | UTHR | 66.5 (87%) | -12.0% | -5.3% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | CRM | 66.4 (87%) | -40.0% | -32.7% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | PCTY | 66.4 (87%) | -23.1% | -16.2% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | PH | 66.4 (87%) | -10.8% | -2.3% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | HRB | 66.3 (87%) | +4.6% | +11.0% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | WSM | 66.3 (87%) | -8.4% | +1.3% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | IEX | 66.2 (86%) | -16.2% | -8.2% | Hold | HOLD |
See also forecast accuracy and the Focus Research Basket.