Alpha Lab
SIMULATED — hypothetical, assumptions apply. Performance policyGeneral and impersonal investment research. Not personal financial advice. Forecasts, valuations and model outputs are estimates and may be wrong. See Investment Disclaimer.
Screen output — not a recommendation. How each ranking is defined.
Every covered name with its decision layer: conviction, expected-return distribution and rules stance, described by the published methodology. Sortable, filterable, exportable. 857 names · 29 held out, not refreshed by this run · Research as of 2026-10-10 · 2d old.
Rating and stance answer different questions, and neither overrides the other. Rating is the valuation verdict — what the name is worth against what it costs. Stance is a separate rules overlay: six pre-registered rules on valuation, street revisions, earnings quality, trend and volatility, tallied into Increase / Hold / Reduce / Exit. The stance is barred from feeding back into the rating — the engine records does_not_alter_rating and a QA check recomputes the rating to prove it moved nothing. So STRONG BUY with stance Hold is not a contradiction: it reads “cheap on our numbers, but nothing has triggered that would make us add today”. Hold is also the default when no rule fires, which is most names — it means “no rule tripped”, not an instruction to hold.
A stance also only moves once the evidence is strong enough to justify changing what was last published, so a row can show a stance the rules no longer read. Those rows are marked ▪ held, with what the rules currently read in the Rules read column.
The forecast record, beside the forecasts. Across 478 scored pre-registered anchors (of 480), the direction implied by our targets has been right 55.2% of the time, above the 50% a coin flip would give, by more than sampling noise at this sample size. Read as probabilities, the targets score worse than a coin flip: a proxy Brier score of 0.253 against 0.25 (lower is better); the probabilities are reconstructed from the price targets, because the engine only began publishing its own on 2026-08-04. The tier figures were corrected on 2026-08-04: they had been scored against a pre-render field carrying only three tiers. By published rating, against each name’s sector ETF (a BUY counts as a hit when it beats it, a SELL when it trails it, a HOLD when it ends within 5 points of it): BUY: 60.0% hits, average alpha +9.6% on 5 scored; HOLD: 31.6%, −1.9% on 418; SELL: 61.4%, −0.5% on 44; STRONG SELL: 33.3%, +0.5% on 6. STRONG BUY: none of its 2 anchors could be scored. Samples are thin and windows short; nothing is settled in either direction. Full accuracy record →
MAS-1Y and MAS-5Y are an unvalidated diagnostic and drive nothing. The MCH Alpha Score blends six blocks into one number that nothing upstream reads; the engine fails its own QA if anything does. A blank cell carries its reason in the column note.
View: | — eight decision columns; Advanced shows every field. CSV export always carries everything.
857 of 857 names. Click a header to sort. Screen output — not a recommendation. Model output for research, not personal financial advice. MAS-1Y / MAS-5Y are an unvalidated diagnostic (λ 0.3), a percentile within this run's coverage — not comparable across runs — struck only inside the hard gates, so a blank is the gate, not missing data; they drive no rating or stance.
| ★ | Ticker | Conviction ▼ | Exp. alpha | Exp. return | Stance | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ☆ | KLAC | 83.7 (100%) | +13.3% | +27.4% | Increase | BUY |
| ☆ | AMAT | 82.5 (100%) | +10.6% | +24.4% | Hold ▪ held | HOLD |
| ☆ | CDNS | 80 (100%) | -3.3% | +7.4% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | DUOL | 79.4 (100%) | +23.2% | +32.3% | Increase | BUY |
| ☆ | NVDA | 77.5 (100%) | -23.5% | -11.9% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | EXEL | 75.6 (99%) | -12.1% | -4.3% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | MA | 75.2 (99%) | -22.4% | -15.4% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | ADI | 75.1 (99%) | -17.3% | -6.3% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | CB | 74.3 (99%) | -7.1% | -2.0% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | RMD | 73.9 (99%) | -19.9% | -12.7% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | AME | 73.8 (99%) | -12.0% | -3.2% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | UMBF | 73.6 (99%) | +3.6% | +11.9% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | LOPE | 73.4 (99%) | -11.2% | -4.1% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | GOOGL | 73.3 (98%) | -27.1% | -17.1% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | LRCX | 73.1 (98%) | -17.0% | -1.6% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | RNR | 73.1 (98%) | -12.6% | -7.8% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | KNSL | 72.9 (98%) | 0.0% | +6.6% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | TT | 72.9 (98%) | -8.3% | +1.0% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | NTRS | 72.8 (98%) | -4.3% | +4.5% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | UBSI | 72.7 (98%) | -3.1% | +5.4% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | BKNG | 72.4 (98%) | 0.0% | +8.6% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | DOCS | 72.4 (98%) | -38.1% | -29.1% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | ADSK | 72.3 (97%) | -24.9% | -17.3% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | CW | 72.3 (97%) | +27.1% | +37.2% | Hold | BUY |
| ☆ | PRI | 72.2 (97%) | +2.3% | +10.0% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | COLB | 72.1 (97%) | +7.6% | +17.5% | Hold ▪ held | BUY |
| ☆ | QCOM | 72.1 (97%) | -11.3% | +1.0% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | MPWR | 72 (97%) | -26.8% | -13.3% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | EWBC | 71.9 (97%) | +1.9% | +10.4% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | ISRG | 71.9 (97%) | -13.4% | -4.6% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | EW | 71.8 (96%) | -4.8% | +3.0% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | IDCC | 71.8 (96%) | -34.3% | -23.3% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | CGNX | 71.7 (96%) | -12.3% | -0.5% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | CME | 71.7 (96%) | -27.8% | -22.6% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | QLYS | 71.5 (96%) | -30.9% | -22.8% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | WST | 71.5 (96%) | -14.1% | -6.3% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | VICR | 71.4 (96%) | -43.6% | -27.8% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | CBSH | 71.3 (96%) | +2.7% | +10.7% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | DECK | 71.3 (96%) | +14.2% | +23.3% | Hold | BUY |
| ☆ | TXN | 71.3 (96%) | -11.7% | -1.4% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | VLTO | 71.3 (96%) | -18.0% | -11.1% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | CBOE | 71.2 (95%) | -27.7% | -22.7% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | DDOG | 71.2 (95%) | -27.5% | -18.1% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | CRUS | 71.1 (95%) | +15.8% | +26.2% | Hold | BUY |
| ☆ | RLI | 71.1 (95%) | +6.4% | +12.3% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | MEDP | 70.7 (95%) | -21.4% | -13.2% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | FIX | 70.6 (95%) | -4.7% | +8.5% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | PB | 70.6 (95%) | -1.9% | +6.6% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | IDXX | 70.5 (94%) | -4.0% | +4.6% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | MANH | 70.5 (94%) | -26.5% | -19.5% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | ADP | 70.4 (94%) | -23.9% | -17.9% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | BNY | 70.4 (94%) | -9.4% | -1.1% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | AAPL | 70.3 (94%) | -26.8% | -18.8% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | PCTY | 70.3 (94%) | -21.9% | -15.0% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | WH | 70.3 (94%) | +46.7% | +55.4% | Increase | BUY |
| ☆ | GBCI | 70.2 (93%) | +14.5% | +23.9% | Hold ▪ held | BUY |
| ☆ | GE | 70.2 (93%) | +1.7% | +11.4% | Hold ▪ held | HOLD |
| ☆ | MTG | 70.2 (93%) | -0.3% | +7.2% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | PNFP | 70.2 (93%) | +0.1% | +8.4% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | SEIC | 70.2 (93%) | -12.2% | -4.5% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | UTHR | 70.1 (93%) | -11.9% | -5.2% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | WAT | 70.1 (93%) | -24.4% | -15.9% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | ETN | 70 (93%) | -18.3% | -7.1% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | META | 70 (93%) | -29.2% | -18.9% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | MS | 69.9 (92%) | -3.8% | +6.4% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | PG | 69.9 (92%) | -11.1% | -5.1% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | HWM | 69.8 (92%) | +3.7% | +12.9% | Hold ▪ held | HOLD |
| ☆ | MSFT | 69.8 (92%) | -30.1% | -21.2% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | NXT | 69.8 (92%) | +0.4% | +14.2% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | STRL | 69.8 (92%) | +9.3% | +25.0% | Increase | BUY |
| ☆ | ASB | 69.7 (92%) | -6.3% | +3.2% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | HLNE | 69.7 (92%) | -12.4% | -1.9% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | FTNT | 69.6 (91%) | -33.3% | -24.5% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | RMBS | 69.5 (91%) | -23.1% | -6.8% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | FFIV | 69.4 (91%) | -32.3% | -23.2% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | ONTO | 69.4 (91%) | -21.6% | -6.4% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | PGR | 69.4 (91%) | -5.5% | -0.9% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | WDC | 69.4 (91%) | -3.3% | +11.3% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | ODFL | 69.2 (91%) | +6.1% | +15.0% | Hold ▪ held | BUY |
| ☆ | ONB | 69.2 (91%) | -3.2% | +6.2% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | ZTS | 69.1 (90%) | -7.6% | +0.1% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | FHN | 69 (90%) | +3.0% | +11.2% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | HWC | 68.9 (90%) | -1.9% | +7.2% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | INTU | 68.9 (90%) | -23.8% | -16.9% | Hold ▪ held | SELL |
| ☆ | MCO | 68.7 (90%) | -9.1% | -1.5% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | CRS | 68.6 (90%) | +35.0% | +45.6% | Hold ▪ held | BUY |
| ☆ | HQY | 68.6 (90%) | -1.5% | +7.1% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | ROK | 68.6 (90%) | -1.2% | +8.9% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | VEEV | 68.6 (90%) | -53.6% | -45.8% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | VRSN | 68.6 (90%) | -22.0% | -15.8% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | CSCO | 68.5 (89%) | -13.3% | -4.1% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | FHI | 68.5 (89%) | -10.6% | -1.5% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | LIN | 68.5 (89%) | +1.9% | +8.2% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | CVLT | 68.4 (89%) | -16.2% | -6.3% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | SNA | 68.4 (89%) | +2.2% | +9.9% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | VRT | 68.4 (89%) | +3.7% | +17.6% | Hold ▪ held | HOLD |
| ☆ | HOMB | 68.3 (88%) | -1.4% | +6.9% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | USB | 68.3 (88%) | -3.9% | +4.3% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | ANET | 68.2 (88%) | -39.3% | -27.3% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | DT | 68.2 (88%) | -36.1% | -28.4% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | OZK | 68.2 (88%) | +8.3% | +17.3% | Hold ▪ held | BUY |
| ☆ | EME | 68.1 (88%) | -12.9% | -1.3% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | RL | 68.1 (88%) | -3.4% | +6.3% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | SWKS | 68.1 (88%) | -21.5% | -11.2% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | ZION | 68.1 (88%) | +2.6% | +12.4% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | GMED | 68 (87%) | -7.8% | +0.5% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | NBIX | 68 (87%) | +13.8% | +21.7% | Hold ▪ held | BUY |
| ☆ | WEX | 68 (87%) | -15.3% | -7.0% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | TCBI | 67.9 (87%) | +5.0% | +14.6% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | TER | 67.9 (87%) | -26.7% | -11.1% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | FFIN | 67.8 (87%) | +4.4% | +13.0% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | AMZN | 67.7 (87%) | -15.2% | -4.9% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | NFLX | 67.7 (87%) | -8.0% | -1.1% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | WTFC | 67.7 (87%) | +0.4% | +9.8% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | JKHY | 67.6 (86%) | -17.2% | -11.3% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | LII | 67.6 (86%) | +46.9% | +56.9% | Hold | BUY |
| ☆ | AXP | 67.5 (86%) | +3.9% | +12.8% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | LLY | 67.5 (86%) | -13.6% | -6.7% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | MORN | 67.5 (86%) | -23.1% | -15.7% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | PNR | 67.4 (86%) | +35.8% | +45.6% | Hold | BUY |
See also forecast accuracy and the Focus Research Basket.