Alpha Lab
SIMULATED — results depend on stated assumptions. Performance policyGeneral and impersonal investment research. Not personalised investment advice. Forecasts, valuations and model outputs are estimates and may be wrong. See Investment Disclaimer.
Every covered name with its decision layer: conviction, expected-return distribution, per-name position cap and rules stance. Sortable, filterable, exportable. 870 names · Research as of 2026-09-09 (today).
Rating and stance answer different questions, and neither overrides the other. Rating is the valuation verdict — what the name is worth against what it costs. Stance is a separate rules overlay: six pre-registered rules on valuation, street revisions, earnings quality, trend and volatility, tallied into Increase / Hold / Reduce / Exit. The stance is barred from feeding back into the rating — the engine records does_not_alter_rating and a QA check recomputes the rating to prove it moved nothing. So STRONG BUY with stance Hold is not a contradiction: it reads “cheap on our numbers, but nothing has triggered that would make us add today”. Hold is also the default when no rule fires, which is most names — it means “no rule tripped”, not “we advise holding”.
A stance also only moves once the evidence is strong enough to justify changing what was last published, so a row can show a stance the rules no longer read. Those rows are marked ▪ held, with what the rules currently read in the Rules read column.
The forecast record, beside the forecasts. Across 480 pre-registered anchors the direction implied by our targets has been right 47.2% of the time, below a coin flip; proxy Brier score 0.264 against 0.25 for the coin flip (lower is better), reconstructed from the price target — published probabilities only began accruing on 2026-08-04. The tier figures were corrected on 2026-08-04: they had been scored against a pre-render field carrying only three tiers. On the ratings actually issued, STRONG SELL is the one tier whose sector-relative interval excludes zero in the correct direction (−8.4%, [−15.7, −0.8], n=7); plain SELL averages +2.1% alpha on 44 names with an interval crossing zero, so those calls were on average wrong; the aggregate is carried by HOLD, which counts as a hit for tracking its benchmark. Samples are thin and windows short; nothing is settled in either direction. Full accuracy record →
MAS-1Y and MAS-5Y are an unvalidated diagnostic and drive nothing. The MCH Alpha Score blends six blocks into one number that nothing upstream reads; the engine fails its own QA if anything does. A blank cell carries its reason in the column note.
“Max size %NAV” is a per-name cap, not an allocation — it is not intended to sum to 100%. It answers how large a position in that name could get, from its own Monte Carlo dispersion and conviction; adding the column across 870 names means nothing. Rows marked ▪ floor sit at the minimum position size, which for most names is what binds; the unfloored figure is carried on the raw feed as risk_parity_pct_nav.
View: | — eight decision columns; Advanced shows every field. CSV export always carries everything.
870 of 870 names. Click a header to sort. Model output for research, not personalised advice. MAS-1Y / MAS-5Y are an unvalidated diagnostic (λ 0.3), a percentile within this run's coverage — not comparable across runs — struck only inside the hard gates, so a blank is the gate, not missing data; they drive no rating, stance or size.
| ★ | Ticker | Conviction ▼ | Exp. alpha | Exp. return | Stance | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ☆ | APP | 80.9 (100%) | +42.4% | +54.4% | Hold | BUY |
| ☆ | DUOL | 80.8 (100%) | +29.4% | +38.3% | Increase | BUY |
| ☆ | KLAC | 80.7 (100%) | +17.9% | +31.8% | Increase | BUY |
| ☆ | AMAT | 80 (100%) | +18.2% | +31.9% | Increase | BUY |
| ☆ | CDNS | 78.3 (99%) | +23.0% | +33.5% | Hold ▪ held | BUY |
| ☆ | V | 77.7 (99%) | -14.6% | -8.0% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | NVDA | 77.4 (99%) | -21.9% | -10.6% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | EXEL | 76.6 (99%) | -9.5% | -2.0% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | KNSL | 76.5 (99%) | -8.8% | -2.6% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | MA | 75.8 (99%) | -19.3% | -12.7% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | MS | 74.7 (99%) | -16.3% | -6.5% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | IDCC | 74.4 (99%) | -34.3% | -23.4% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | CRBG | 74.3 (99%) | +50.4% | +60.0% | Increase | BUY |
| ☆ | MTG | 74.2 (98%) | -6.7% | +0.4% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | PRI | 74.2 (98%) | -1.0% | +6.3% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | RNR | 74.2 (98%) | -5.7% | -1.2% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | MANH | 73.9 (98%) | -26.3% | -19.5% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | TTMI | 73.8 (98%) | +67.8% | +83.2% | Increase | BUY |
| ☆ | ADI | 73.7 (98%) | -5.8% | +4.7% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | NTRS | 73.7 (98%) | -13.4% | -5.0% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | DDOG | 73.3 (98%) | +5.1% | +14.3% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | DOCS | 73.1 (98%) | -20.2% | -11.6% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | QLYS | 73.1 (98%) | -17.4% | -9.4% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | SEIC | 72.9 (97%) | -14.4% | -7.0% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | ISRG | 72.8 (97%) | +7.0% | +15.5% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | JKHY | 72.8 (97%) | -22.7% | -17.1% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | PB | 72.8 (97%) | -5.1% | +3.0% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | RMD | 72.8 (97%) | -16.1% | -9.1% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | COLB | 72.7 (97%) | -0.1% | +9.4% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | QCOM | 72.7 (97%) | -9.9% | +1.8% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | FHI | 72.2 (97%) | -16.5% | -7.8% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | CME | 72.1 (96%) | -26.8% | -22.0% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | TPL | 72.1 (96%) | -2.6% | +3.9% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | WAT | 72.1 (96%) | -17.7% | -9.4% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | LOPE | 72 (96%) | -6.5% | +0.4% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | AAPL | 71.8 (96%) | -21.3% | -13.6% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | GOOGL | 71.8 (96%) | -23.5% | -13.8% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | META | 71.8 (96%) | -14.8% | -5.0% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | SCHW | 71.8 (96%) | -22.0% | -14.9% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | UBSI | 71.7 (95%) | -5.1% | +3.1% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | CB | 71.6 (95%) | -5.4% | -0.7% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | AME | 71.5 (95%) | -7.2% | +1.2% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | RLI | 71.5 (95%) | -5.5% | 0.0% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | EW | 71.4 (95%) | -6.2% | +1.2% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | MEDP | 71.4 (95%) | -18.4% | -10.5% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | CBOE | 71.3 (95%) | -24.6% | -19.9% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | VLTO | 71.3 (95%) | -16.2% | -9.7% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | CW | 71.2 (95%) | +12.0% | +22.0% | Hold | BUY |
| ☆ | DT | 71.1 (94%) | -17.8% | -10.3% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | LRCX | 71 (94%) | -12.0% | +3.3% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | MCO | 71 (94%) | -12.2% | -5.0% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | ADP | 70.9 (94%) | -22.7% | -17.0% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | FICO | 70.9 (94%) | +16.9% | +23.8% | Hold | BUY |
| ☆ | MSFT | 70.9 (94%) | -23.1% | -14.6% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | NFG | 70.9 (94%) | +12.8% | +18.9% | Increase | BUY |
| ☆ | UMBF | 70.9 (94%) | -5.0% | +2.9% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | RMBS | 70.8 (94%) | -1.7% | +15.5% | Hold | BUY |
| ☆ | VRSN | 70.8 (94%) | -15.1% | -9.4% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | ADBE | 70.7 (93%) | -28.3% | -21.6% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | CRUS | 70.7 (93%) | +10.5% | +20.7% | Hold | BUY |
| ☆ | DOCU | 70.5 (93%) | -24.3% | -16.7% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | IDXX | 70.5 (93%) | -4.2% | +4.2% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | SNA | 70.5 (93%) | -3.2% | +4.2% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | SWKS | 70.5 (93%) | -20.3% | -10.1% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | BNY | 70.4 (93%) | -21.3% | -13.4% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | ETN | 70.4 (93%) | -16.3% | -5.5% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | TT | 70.4 (93%) | -0.9% | +8.0% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | STRL | 70.3 (92%) | +14.3% | +29.9% | Increase | BUY |
| ☆ | CGNX | 70.1 (92%) | -9.8% | +1.6% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | FFIV | 70.1 (92%) | -14.0% | -5.4% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | VRT | 70.1 (92%) | -15.5% | -1.8% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | FTNT | 70 (92%) | -15.3% | -6.6% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | GE | 70 (92%) | -6.8% | +2.5% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | PCTY | 70 (92%) | -19.6% | -13.0% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | VRTX | 70 (92%) | -19.0% | -11.8% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | INTU | 69.9 (91%) | -27.7% | -21.1% | Hold ▪ held | SELL |
| ☆ | WST | 69.9 (91%) | -6.0% | +1.6% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | ADSK | 69.7 (91%) | -15.5% | -8.3% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | DECK | 69.7 (91%) | +15.1% | +23.8% | Hold | BUY |
| ☆ | EWBC | 69.7 (91%) | -3.8% | +4.3% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | NXT | 69.7 (91%) | +3.6% | +16.9% | Hold | BUY |
| ☆ | VEEV | 69.7 (91%) | -46.9% | -39.4% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | ANET | 69.6 (90%) | -30.9% | -19.2% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | ASB | 69.6 (90%) | -5.3% | +3.8% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | DLB | 69.6 (90%) | -25.4% | -16.9% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | WEX | 69.5 (90%) | -24.2% | -16.0% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | FHN | 69.4 (90%) | -6.1% | +1.7% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | HLNE | 69.4 (90%) | -27.2% | -17.1% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | AVGO | 69.3 (90%) | -14.3% | -2.3% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | CBSH | 69.3 (90%) | -5.5% | +2.2% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | SLM | 69.3 (90%) | -13.6% | -4.1% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | SPGI | 69.3 (90%) | -14.2% | -7.5% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | BLK | 69.2 (89%) | -24.2% | -15.1% | Reduce | SELL |
| ☆ | TER | 68.9 (89%) | -19.2% | -3.8% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | WTFC | 68.9 (89%) | -2.1% | +5.9% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | KEYS | 68.8 (89%) | -9.3% | +1.8% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | CVLT | 68.7 (89%) | +0.3% | +10.2% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | RGLD | 68.7 (89%) | +12.1% | +21.7% | Increase | HOLD |
| ☆ | HWM | 68.6 (88%) | +0.8% | +9.8% | Hold ▪ held | HOLD |
| ☆ | IBOC | 68.6 (88%) | +0.8% | +8.7% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | ROK | 68.6 (88%) | 0.0% | +9.8% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | TXN | 68.6 (88%) | -1.9% | +8.0% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | BKNG | 68.5 (88%) | -11.6% | -3.4% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | CTVA | 68.5 (88%) | -13.7% | -7.7% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | NBIX | 68.5 (88%) | +3.5% | +11.1% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | ZION | 68.5 (88%) | -6.8% | +1.5% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | ILMN | 68.4 (88%) | -19.7% | -11.5% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | WDAY | 68.4 (88%) | -42.8% | -36.1% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | HQY | 68.3 (87%) | -2.1% | +6.2% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | PLTR | 68.3 (87%) | -26.5% | -15.0% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | BX | 68.2 (87%) | -23.9% | -14.3% | Hold ▪ held | SELL |
| ☆ | DHR | 68.2 (87%) | -12.3% | -5.4% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | NFLX | 68.2 (87%) | -16.0% | -9.5% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | NDAQ | 68.1 (87%) | -21.8% | -14.2% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | AMZN | 68 (87%) | -12.6% | -2.8% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | REGN | 68 (87%) | -30.9% | -23.8% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | CRM | 67.9 (86%) | -44.0% | -36.8% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | PATH | 67.9 (86%) | -24.9% | -14.4% | Hold | SELL |
| ☆ | THG | 67.9 (86%) | -11.7% | -5.4% | Hold | HOLD |
| ☆ | CTAS | 67.8 (86%) | -20.4% | -14.2% | Hold | SELL |
See also forecast accuracy and portfolio interaction.