Focus Research Basket — risk & correlation
SIMULATED — research basket; hypothetical, assumptions apply. Performance policyGeneral and impersonal investment research. Not personal financial advice. Forecasts, valuations and model outputs are estimates and may be wrong. See Investment Disclaimer.
How the top-conviction names interact, as a rule-based Research Basket (MCH Analysis prompt §9: described by its methodology, never by any type of investor; not a portfolio for anyone). As of 2026-10-10: 50 names, book vol 8.13%, risk reduction vs ungrossed 78.71% (correlation + short-leg hedging + net exposure, not diversification alone).
Equal-weight focus book (top-conviction, held and withdrawn names excluded — 9 passed over: APH (coverage ended — config retired 2026-09-10), APP (held by analyst review), CTVA (held by analyst review), MNST (coverage ended — config retired 2026-09-10), V (rating suspended by owner decision), FICO (held by analyst review), CRBG (rating suspended by owner decision), TECH (pending acquisition (deal quarantine) — published without a rating), STX (rating suspended by owner decision)). MCTR sums to portfolio vol by identity. VIXY proxies VIX (roll decay). Model output — not advice.
Basket methodology
- Universe and selection: the covered names with the highest research-conviction scores in the latest research run (50 names), each held long or short according to its published rating — no discretionary choice.
- Weights: equal weight per name — deterministic, never a discretionary allocation.
- Rebalance: recomputed from scratch with every research run (see the publication calendar).
- What it is for: the risk, correlation and concentration figures on this page. It carries no return track record; transaction costs, slippage, dividends, fees and taxes are therefore not modelled. SIMULATED — hypothetical, assumptions apply.
Benchmark correlations (top 30 by conviction)
| Name | SPY | QQQ | XLK | IWM | VIXY* | GLD | UUP | MCTR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KLAC | 0.63 | 0.73 | 0.76 | 0.54 | -0.48 | 0.19 | -0.07 | 0.53pp |
| AMAT | 0.61 | 0.71 | 0.75 | 0.52 | -0.47 | 0.17 | -0.06 | 0.53pp |
| CDNS | 0.61 | 0.65 | 0.67 | 0.47 | -0.44 | 0.11 | -0.02 | 0.24pp |
| DUOL | 0.34 | 0.32 | 0.30 | 0.30 | -0.29 | -0.02 | 0.01 | 0.29pp |
| NVDA | 0.67 | 0.74 | 0.78 | 0.41 | -0.52 | 0.10 | -0.01 | -0.24pp |
| EXEL | 0.19 | 0.14 | 0.10 | 0.25 | -0.15 | 0.00 | -0.06 | 0.19pp |
| MA | 0.48 | 0.34 | 0.26 | 0.36 | -0.42 | -0.04 | 0.01 | -0.12pp |
| ADI | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.68 | 0.62 | -0.55 | 0.16 | -0.06 | 0.42pp |
| RMD | 0.32 | 0.23 | 0.18 | 0.32 | -0.24 | 0.12 | -0.11 | -0.07pp |
| CB | 0.11 | -0.06 | -0.12 | 0.09 | -0.12 | -0.05 | 0.01 | 0.11pp |
| AME | 0.57 | 0.51 | 0.49 | 0.59 | -0.47 | 0.12 | -0.04 | 0.27pp |
| UMBF | 0.53 | 0.40 | 0.35 | 0.73 | -0.48 | 0.04 | -0.05 | 0.37pp |
| GOOGL | 0.57 | 0.58 | 0.47 | 0.39 | -0.44 | 0.11 | -0.09 | -0.11pp |
| LOPE | 0.28 | 0.20 | 0.16 | 0.31 | -0.22 | -0.01 | 0.01 | 0.15pp |
| TT | 0.56 | 0.54 | 0.52 | 0.50 | -0.46 | 0.13 | -0.07 | 0.31pp |
| RNR | 0.12 | 0.02 | -0.03 | 0.09 | -0.14 | -0.04 | 0.06 | 0.13pp |
| DOCS | 0.27 | 0.24 | 0.20 | 0.26 | -0.24 | 0.01 | -0.02 | 0.01pp |
| LRCX | 0.65 | 0.75 | 0.78 | 0.56 | -0.49 | 0.20 | -0.10 | 0.56pp |
| MANH | 0.39 | 0.32 | 0.31 | 0.34 | -0.29 | -0.04 | -0.01 | -0.08pp |
| NTRS | 0.58 | 0.47 | 0.43 | 0.63 | -0.50 | 0.06 | -0.03 | 0.29pp |
| KNSL | 0.16 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.20 | -0.15 | 0.00 | -0.01 | 0.25pp |
| BKNG | 0.48 | 0.42 | 0.35 | 0.37 | -0.39 | -0.01 | -0.01 | 0.19pp |
| CW | 0.54 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.54 | -0.43 | 0.22 | -0.06 | 0.32pp |
| UBSI | 0.47 | 0.33 | 0.27 | 0.72 | -0.43 | 0.01 | -0.06 | 0.32pp |
| ADSK | 0.44 | 0.39 | 0.35 | 0.39 | -0.35 | 0.01 | -0.03 | -0.07pp |
| DDOG | 0.36 | 0.40 | 0.41 | 0.27 | -0.27 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00pp |
| ISRG | 0.53 | 0.47 | 0.40 | 0.39 | -0.40 | 0.10 | -0.06 | 0.22pp |
| MPWR | 0.66 | 0.72 | 0.73 | 0.59 | -0.52 | 0.20 | -0.09 | -0.50pp |
| MTG | 0.39 | 0.25 | 0.20 | 0.48 | -0.36 | -0.03 | -0.07 | 0.22pp |
| PRI | 0.46 | 0.31 | 0.25 | 0.46 | -0.41 | -0.05 | 0.01 | 0.23pp |
*VIXY is the VIX proxy in the adjusted-close pipeline; roll decay makes it a directional volatility hedge, not the index level. MCTR is the marginal contribution to book risk; across all 50 names the column sums to the book vol by identity (the top 30 are shown).
Sector concentration
Not published this run: sector is unresolved for the focus book, so no concentration figure is meaningful.