Lowest Downside Probability
General and impersonal investment research. Not personal financial advice. Forecasts, valuations and model outputs are estimates and may be wrong. See Investment Disclaimer.
Screen output — not a recommendation. How each ranking is defined.
Smallest modelled probability of a negative return. Ratings as of 2026-10-10 (today) for most names; a few held names carry earlier dates.
The forecast record, beside the forecasts. Across 478 scored pre-registered anchors (of 480), the direction implied by our targets has been right 55.2% of the time, above the 50% a coin flip would give, by more than sampling noise at this sample size. Read as probabilities, the targets score worse than a coin flip: a proxy Brier score of 0.253 against 0.25 (lower is better); the probabilities are reconstructed from the price targets, because the engine only began publishing its own on 2026-08-04. Samples are thin and windows short; nothing is settled in either direction. Full accuracy record →
Ranking 830 of 881 covered names with downside prob data; top 25 shown.
| # | Company | Rating | Downside prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Avis Budget GroupCAR | BUY | 0.1% |
| 2 | Olin CorporationOLN | BUY | 15.1% |
| 3 | Wyndham Hotels & ResortsWH | BUY | 20.2% |
| 4 | Dutch Bros Inc.BROS | BUY | 20.8% |
| 5 | Nexstar Media GroupNXST | BUY | 21.2% |
| 6 | Lennox InternationalLII | BUY | 21.5% |
| 7 | Carpenter TechnologyCRS | BUY | 25.2% |
| 8 | Dentsply SironaXRAY | BUY | 26.9% |
| 9 | PinterestPINS | BUY | 27.1% |
| 10 | AAONAAON | BUY | 27.8% |
| 11 | PVH Corp.PVH | BUY | 28.4% |
| 12 | Builders FirstSourceBLDR | BUY | 28.6% |
| 13 | PentairPNR | BUY | 28.7% |
| 14 | RHRH | BUY | 29.2% |
| 15 | Dick's Sporting GoodsDKS | BUY | 29.9% |
| 16 | Capri HoldingsCPRI | BUY | 30.2% |
| 17 | Trade Desk (The)TTD | BUY | 30.4% |
| 18 | Bath & Body Works, Inc.BBWI | BUY | 30.5% |
| 19 | Whirlpool CorporationWHR | BUY | 31.0% |
| 20 | MGM ResortsMGM | BUY | 32.3% |
| 21 | MasTecMTZ | BUY | 32.4% |
| 22 | Cooper Companies (The)COO | BUY | 32.4% |
| 23 | First SolarFSLR | BUY | 32.9% |
| 24 | UFP IndustriesUFPI | BUY | 33.0% |
| 25 | Rollins, Inc.ROL | BUY | 33.0% |
Change tracking is unavailable for this metric — its source feed keeps no history. The four ROS-native rankings (fair value vs price, expected return, quality, moat) carry day-over-day motion.
Other rankings: Top Fair-Value Upside · Most Overvalued · Largest Probability-Weighted Target Upside · Biggest Drawdown · Closest to 52-Week Low · Closest to 52-Week High · Lowest Forward P/E · Highest Forward P/E · Largest by Market Cap · Best Bull / Bear Scenario Ratio · Largest Fair Value vs Price (Engine Field) · Highest MCH Estimated 12-Month Return · Highest Quality · Widest Moat · Biggest House-vs-Consensus