Lowest Downside Probability
General and impersonal investment research. Not personalised investment advice. Forecasts, valuations and model outputs are estimates and may be wrong. See Investment Disclaimer.
Smallest modelled probability of a negative return. Ratings as of 2026-09-09 (today) for most names; a few held names carry earlier dates.
The forecast record, beside the forecasts. Across 480 pre-registered anchors the direction implied by our targets has been right 47.2% of the time, below a coin flip; proxy Brier score 0.264 against 0.25 for the coin flip (lower is better), reconstructed from the price target — published probabilities only began accruing on 2026-08-04. Samples are thin and windows short; nothing is settled in either direction. Full accuracy record →
Ranking 870 of 884 covered names with downside prob data; top 25 shown.
| # | Company | Rating | Downside prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brighthouse FinancialBHF | BUY | 4.3% |
| 2 | Nexstar Media GroupNXST | BUY | 16.4% |
| 3 | Wyndham Hotels & ResortsWH | BUY | 16.5% |
| 4 | TTM TechnologiesTTMI | BUY | 22.1% |
| 5 | Corebridge FinancialCRBG | BUY | 22.4% |
| 6 | PVH Corp.PVH | BUY | 23.4% |
| 7 | PolarisPII | BUY | 23.4% |
| 8 | Olin CorporationOLN | BUY | 23.5% |
| 9 | Capri HoldingsCPRI | BUY | 25.0% |
| 10 | AppLovinAPP | BUY | 25.3% |
| 11 | Lennox InternationalLII | BUY | 26.3% |
| 12 | Honeywell Aerospace Inc (HONA)HONA | BUY | 26.6% |
| 13 | Equitable HoldingsEQH | BUY | 26.6% |
| 14 | Snap Inc. (SNAP)SNAP | HOLD | 27.3% |
| 15 | Bath & Body Works, Inc.BBWI | BUY | 28.3% |
| 16 | Dick's Sporting GoodsDKS | BUY | 29.7% |
| 17 | Dutch Bros Inc.BROS | BUY | 29.7% |
| 18 | AAONAAON | BUY | 31.9% |
| 19 | RB GlobalRBA | BUY | 32.0% |
| 20 | Cadence Design SystemsCDNS | BUY | 32.1% |
| 21 | DuolingoDUOL | BUY | 33.1% |
| 22 | UGI CorpUGI | BUY | 33.3% |
| 23 | GeneracGNRC | BUY | 33.4% |
| 24 | KLA CorporationKLAC | BUY | 34.1% |
| 25 | Fair IsaacFICO | BUY | 34.3% |
Change tracking is unavailable for this metric — its source feed keeps no history. The four ROS-native rankings (margin of safety, expected return, quality, moat) carry day-over-day motion.
Other rankings: Top Upside · Most Overvalued · Largest Margin of Safety · Biggest Drawdown · Closest to 52-Week Low · Closest to 52-Week High · Lowest Forward P/E · Highest Forward P/E · Largest by Market Cap · Best Risk / Reward · Largest Margin of Safety (FV) · Highest Expected Return · Highest Quality · Widest Moat · Biggest House-vs-Consensus