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Consumer Discretionary

103 companies under coverage across 25 industries.

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Consumer Discretionary companies

Equity Research

Dutch Bros Inc (BROS)

BUY. 12-month probability-weighted target $68 (+78% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 58% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

BROSEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: BUY · Fair value vs price +53.1%

Equity Research

RH (RH)

BUY. 12-month probability-weighted target $184 (+57% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 52% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

RHEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: BUY · Fair value vs price +50.3%

Equity Research

Bath & Body Works Inc. (BBWI)

BUY. 12-month probability-weighted target $27 (+54% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 63% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

BBWIEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: BUY · Fair value vs price +46.0%

Equity Research

MGM Resorts International (MGM)

BUY. 12-month probability-weighted target $47 (+62% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 58% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

MGMEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: BUY · Fair value vs price +44.8%

Equity Research

PVH Corp (PVH)

BUY. 12-month probability-weighted target $131 (+61% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 64% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

PVHEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: BUY · Fair value vs price +44.1%

Equity Research

Duolingo Inc (DUOL)

BUY. 12-month probability-weighted target $194 (+29% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 83% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

DUOLEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: BUY · Fair value vs price +42.5%

Equity Research

Capri Holdings Ltd (CPRI)

BUY. 12-month probability-weighted target $23 (+53% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 63% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

CPRIEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: BUY · Fair value vs price +31.8%

Equity Research

Hilton Grand Vacations Inc (HGV)

BUY. 12-month probability-weighted target $47 (+37% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 58% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

HGVEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: BUY · Fair value vs price +31.7%

Equity Research

Macy’s Inc (M)

BUY. 12-month probability-weighted target $32 (+41% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 53% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

MEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: BUY · Fair value vs price +28.6%

Equity Research

Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK)

BUY. 12-month probability-weighted target $101 (+22% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 65% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

DECKEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: BUY · Fair value vs price +27.5%

Equity Research

Whirlpool Corporation (WHR)

BUY. 12-month probability-weighted target $35 (+20% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 71% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

WHREquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: BUY · Fair value vs price +25.8%

Equity Research

H&R Block Inc (HRB)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $48 (+10% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 71% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

HRBEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price +25.3%

Equity Research

Aptiv PLC (APTV)

BUY. 12-month probability-weighted target $62 (+41% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 57% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

APTVEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: BUY · Fair value vs price +24.9%

Equity Research

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd (NCLH)

BUY. 12-month probability-weighted target $20 (+27% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 58% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

NCLHEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: BUY · Fair value vs price +24.4%

Equity Research

Wynn Resorts Limited (WYNN)

BUY. 12-month probability-weighted target $100 (+33% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 52% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

WYNNEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: BUY · Fair value vs price +24.3%

Equity Research

Dick’s Sporting Goods Inc (DKS)

BUY. 12-month probability-weighted target $214 (+56% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 64% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

DKSEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: BUY · Fair value vs price +23.2%

Equity Research

Wyndham Hotels & Resorts Inc (WH)

BUY. 12-month probability-weighted target $113 (+53% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 70% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

WHEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: BUY · Fair value vs price +22.4%

Equity Research

KB Home (KBH)

BUY. 12-month probability-weighted target $54 (+26% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 55% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

KBHEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: BUY · Fair value vs price +19.6%

Equity Research

Crocs Inc (CROX)

BUY. 12-month probability-weighted target $151 (+31% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 60% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

CROXEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: BUY · Fair value vs price +19.4%

Equity Research

YETI Holdings Inc (YETI)

BUY. 12-month probability-weighted target $50 (+25% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 51% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

YETIEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: BUY · Fair value vs price +17.0%

Equity Research

AutoNation Inc (AN)

BUY. 12-month probability-weighted target $193 (+22% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 55% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

ANEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: BUY · Fair value vs price +16.9%

Equity Research

PulteGroup Inc (PHM)

BUY. 12-month probability-weighted target $142 (+27% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 47% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

PHMEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: BUY · Fair value vs price +15.0%

Equity Research

Visteon Corp (VC)

BUY. 12-month probability-weighted target $100 (+18% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 60% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

VCEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: BUY · Fair value vs price +14.8%

Equity Research

Tapestry Inc (TPR)

BUY. 12-month probability-weighted target $145 (+25% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 67% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

TPREquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: BUY · Fair value vs price +13.6%

Equity Research

Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $107 (+14% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 59% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

LULUEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price +12.1%

Equity Research

Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $174 (+9% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 81% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

BKNGEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price +12.0%

Equity Research

DR Horton Inc (DHI)

BUY. 12-month probability-weighted target $160 (+19% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 50% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

DHIEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: BUY · Fair value vs price +10.8%

Equity Research

Travel + Leisure Co (TNL)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $71 (+14% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 57% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

TNLEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price +8.9%

Equity Research

Chewy Inc (CHWY)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $21 (+10% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 64% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

CHWYEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price +8.9%

Equity Research

Expedia Group Inc. (EXPE)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $268 (-2% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 80% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

EXPEEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price +6.0%

Equity Research

Gentex Corporation (GNTX)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $23 (+8% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 61% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

GNTXEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price +5.8%

Equity Research

Las Vegas Sands Corp (LVS)

BUY. 12-month probability-weighted target $44 (+21% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 52% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

LVSEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: BUY · Fair value vs price +5.7%

Equity Research

Lithia Motors Inc (LAD)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $313 (+8% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 54% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

LADEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price +5.6%

Equity Research

General Motors Company (GM)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $74 (-11% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 54% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

GMEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price +5.5%

Equity Research

Ford Motor Company (F)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $13 (+5% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 46% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

FEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price +5.4%

Equity Research

Toll Brothers Inc (TOL)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $150 (+13% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 46% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

TOLEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price +5.0%

Equity Research

Brunswick Corporation (BC)

BUY. 12-month probability-weighted target $76 (+24% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 64% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

BCEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: BUY · Fair value vs price +5.0%

Equity Research

Texas Roadhouse Inc (TXRH)

BUY. 12-month probability-weighted target $195 (+21% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 66% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

TXRHEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: BUY · Fair value vs price +4.4%

Equity Research

VF Corporation (VFC)

BUY. 12-month probability-weighted target $17 (+14% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 62% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

VFCEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: BUY · Fair value vs price +0.9%

Equity Research

Nike Inc (NKE)

BUY. 12-month probability-weighted target $42 (+22% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 65% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

NKEEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: BUY · Fair value vs price +0.6%

Equity Research

Valvoline Inc (VVV)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $39 (+30% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 50% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

VVVEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price -0.1%

Equity Research

Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $82 (+3% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 76% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

CHDNEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price -0.8%

Equity Research

The Home Depot Inc (HD)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $347 (+19% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 64% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

HDEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price -1.0%

Equity Research

Columbia Sportswear Company (COLM)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $60 (+5% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 65% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

COLMEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price -1.2%

Equity Research

Lear Corporation (LEA)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $133 (+13% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 59% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

LEAEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price -1.7%

Equity Research

Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $27 (+2% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 46% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

HOGEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price -1.7%

Equity Research

Thor Industries Inc (THO)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $75 (+17% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 66% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

THOEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price -2.2%

Equity Research

NVR Inc (NVR)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $6582 (+12% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 46% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

NVREquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price -2.2%

Equity Research

eBay Inc (EBAY)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $106 (-5% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 75% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

EBAYEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price -2.3%

Equity Research

Ralph Lauren Corp Class A (RL)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $389 (+5% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 52% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

RLEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price -2.9%

Equity Research

Grand Canyon Education Inc (LOPE)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $151 (-6% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 74% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

LOPEEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price -2.9%

Equity Research

Burlington Stores Inc (BURL)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $349 (+26% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 65% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

BURLEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price -2.9%

Equity Research

Planet Fitness Inc (PLNT)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $55 (+14% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 64% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

PLNTEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price -3.0%

Equity Research

The TJX Companies Inc (TJX)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $152 (+10% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 59% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

TJXEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price -3.6%

Equity Research

Boyd Gaming Corporation (BYD)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $84 (+22% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 47% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

BYDEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price -3.9%

Equity Research

Lennar Corporation (LEN)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $95 (+23% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 58% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

LENEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price -5.0%

Equity Research

McDonald’s Corporation (MCD)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $260 (+11% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 81% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

MCDEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price -5.1%

Equity Research

Darden Restaurants Inc (DRI)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $210 (+6% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 58% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

DRIEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price -5.2%

Equity Research

Murphy USA Inc (MUSA)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $620 (+17% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 69% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

MUSAEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price -6.2%

Equity Research

GameStop Corp. (GME)

SELL. 12-month probability-weighted target $21 (-20% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 73% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

GMEEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: SELL · Fair value vs price -6.2%

Equity Research

Somnigroup International Inc. (SGI)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $71 (+13% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 63% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

SGIEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price -7.1%

Equity Research

Penske Automotive Group Inc (PAG)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $188 (-4% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 69% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

PAGEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price -7.1%

Equity Research

Lowe's Companies Inc (LOW)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $219 (+18% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 66% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

LOWEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price -7.4%

Equity Research

AutoZone Inc (AZO)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $2961 (+1% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 49% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

AZOEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price -9.5%

Equity Research

Carnival Corporation (CCL)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $28 (+7% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 45% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

CCLEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price -10.6%

Equity Research

Airbnb Inc (ABNB)

SELL. 12-month probability-weighted target $138 (-17% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 76% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

ABNBEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: SELL · Fair value vs price -11.6%

Equity Research

The Gap, Inc. (GAP)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $24 (+3% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 64% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

GAPEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price -11.7%

Equity Research

Autoliv Inc (ALV)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $111 (+1% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 59% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

ALVEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price -11.7%

Equity Research

Starbucks Corporation (SBUX)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $101 (+11% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 62% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

SBUXEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price -12.0%

Equity Research

BorgWarner Inc (BWA)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $62 (+1% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 58% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

BWAEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price -12.0%

Equity Research

Carvana Co (CVNA)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $65 (+1% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 61% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

CVNAEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price -12.1%

Equity Research

Wingstop Inc (WING)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $140 (+15% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 60% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

WINGEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price -12.2%

Equity Research

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCL)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $290 (+3% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 65% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

RCLEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price -12.2%

Equity Research

Floor & Decor Holdings Inc (FND)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $51 (+11% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 67% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

FNDEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price -12.5%

Equity Research

Amazon.com (AMZN)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $246 (-6% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 67% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

AMZNEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price -12.6%

Equity Research

Williams-Sonoma Inc (WSM)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $238 (-1% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 57% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

WSMEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price -12.9%

Equity Research

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $32 (+2% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 50% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

CMGEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price -13.3%

Equity Research

Yum! Brands Inc (YUM)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $146 (+1% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 69% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

YUMEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price -14.4%

Equity Research

Ross Stores Inc (ROST)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $207 (-7% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 50% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

ROSTEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price -15.1%

Equity Research

Five Below Inc (FIVE)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $202 (-6% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 52% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

FIVEEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price -15.5%

Equity Research

Marriott International Inc (MAR)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $374 (+2% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 82% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

MAREquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price -15.6%

Equity Research

Choice Hotels International Inc (CHH)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $104 (-2% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 85% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

CHHEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price -16.0%

Equity Research

Hasbro Inc (HAS)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $86 (-8% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 62% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

HASEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price -16.4%

Equity Research

Service Corporation International (SCI)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $78 (+2% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 55% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

SCIEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price -16.5%

Equity Research

Vail Resorts Inc (MTN)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $142 (-3% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 63% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

MTNEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price -17.5%

Equity Research

O’Reilly Automotive Inc (ORLY)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $84 (-2% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 54% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

ORLYEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price -18.1%

Equity Research

Garmin Ltd (GRMN)

SELL. 12-month probability-weighted target $238 (-11% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 76% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

GRMNEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: SELL · Fair value vs price -18.9%

Equity Research

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $317 (-3% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 81% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

HLTEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price -19.0%

Equity Research

Best Buy Co. Inc (BBY)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $78 (-11% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 64% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

BBYEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price -19.0%

Equity Research

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg (OLLI)

SELL. 12-month probability-weighted target $68 (-20% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 49% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

OLLIEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: SELL · Fair value vs price -19.1%

Equity Research

Aramark Holdings (ARMK)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $55 (+1% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 68% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

ARMKEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price -19.5%

Equity Research

Tesla Inc. (TSLA)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $375 (-2% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 55% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

TSLAEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price -22.8%

Equity Research

Mattel Inc (MAT)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $15 (-8% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 64% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

MATEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price -24.3%

Equity Research

Ulta Beauty Inc (ULTA)

SELL. 12-month probability-weighted target $475 (-17% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 58% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

ULTAEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: SELL · Fair value vs price -25.2%

Equity Research

Domino's Pizza Inc Common Stock (DPZ)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $286 (-8% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 48% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

DPZEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price -27.0%

Equity Research

SharkNinja, Inc. (SN)

SELL. 12-month probability-weighted target $149 (-19% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 53% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

SNEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: SELL · Fair value vs price -27.2%

Equity Research

Genuine Parts Co (GPC)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $117 (-8% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 67% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

GPCEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price -27.7%

Equity Research

Hyatt Hotels Corporation (H)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $149 (-8% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 59% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

HEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price -28.3%

Equity Research

Tractor Supply Company (TSCO)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $30 (-12% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 64% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

TSCOEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price -29.2%

Equity Research

Abercrombie & Fitch Company (ANF)

SELL. 12-month probability-weighted target $105 (-27% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 63% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

ANFEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: SELL · Fair value vs price -30.5%

Equity Research

DoorDash, Inc. Class A Common Stock (DASH)

SELL. 12-month probability-weighted target $161 (-18% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 56% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

DASHEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: SELL · Fair value vs price -36.3%

Equity Research

CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA)

Rating suspended since 2026-09-29 — valuation method under review. The rating, price target and expected return are withheld until the name is re-valued; the research on the report page predates the review.

CAVAEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: N/A

Equity Research

Polaris Industries Inc (PII)

Rating suspended since 2026-10-10 — under review. The rating, price target and expected return are withheld until the name is re-valued; the research on the report page predates the review.

PIIEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

11 September 2026Rating: N/A