Skip to content

MCH ANALYSIS RESEARCH Main site ↗

Consumer Discretionary

Automotive Retail

8 companies under coverage.

How to read this page

Coverage

Automotive Retail

Equity Research

AutoNation Inc (AN)

BUY. 12-month probability-weighted target $193 (+22% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 55% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

ANEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: BUY · Fair value vs price +16.9%

Equity Research

Lithia Motors Inc (LAD)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $313 (+8% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 54% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

LADEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price +5.6%

Equity Research

Valvoline Inc (VVV)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $39 (+30% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 50% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

VVVEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price -0.1%

Equity Research

Murphy USA Inc (MUSA)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $620 (+17% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 69% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

MUSAEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price -6.2%

Equity Research

Penske Automotive Group Inc (PAG)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $188 (-4% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 69% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

PAGEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price -7.1%

Equity Research

AutoZone Inc (AZO)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $2961 (+1% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 49% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

AZOEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price -9.5%

Equity Research

Carvana Co (CVNA)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $65 (+1% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 61% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

CVNAEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price -12.1%

Equity Research

O’Reilly Automotive Inc (ORLY)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $84 (-2% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 54% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

ORLYEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price -18.1%

MCH ANALYSIS · All research · Research, not personal financial advicemchadvisoryservices.com ↗ · Research Standard v4 (decision-level) · Research OS ros-1.20.0 · US-listed

MCH Analysis is a general investment-research publication of MCH Advisory (Pty) Ltd. It is not personal financial advice and does not take your circumstances into account. MCH is not a licensed financial services provider or a registered investment adviser. Past performance, whether actual or simulated, does not predict future results. Subscriber Agreement | Privacy and Cookie Notice | Research Governance Policies