Homebuilding
KB Home (KBH)
BUY. 12-month probability-weighted target $54 (+26% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 55% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.
PulteGroup Inc (PHM)
BUY. 12-month probability-weighted target $142 (+27% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 47% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.
DR Horton Inc (DHI)
BUY. 12-month probability-weighted target $160 (+19% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 50% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.
Toll Brothers Inc (TOL)
HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $150 (+13% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 46% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.
NVR Inc (NVR)
HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $6582 (+12% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 46% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.
Lennar Corporation (LEN)
HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $95 (+23% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 58% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.