Theme

Digital Payments & Fintech

Payment rails, exchanges, brokerage and consumer finance.

40 covered names · ranked by fair value vs price

Euronet Worldwide Inc (EEFT)

BUY. 12-month probability-weighted target $84 (+30% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 59% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

EEFTEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: BUY · Fair value vs price +29.3%

Equity Research

Virtu Financial, Inc. (VIRT)

BUY. 12-month probability-weighted target $67 (+16% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 70% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

VIRTEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

11 October 2026Rating: BUY · Fair value vs price +19.3%

Equity Research

Stifel Financial Corporation (SF)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $77 (+10% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 90% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

SFEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price +17.3%

Equity Research

Evercore Partners Inc (EVR)

BUY. 12-month probability-weighted target $314 (+15% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 89% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

EVREquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: BUY · Fair value vs price +17.0%

Equity Research

Ally Financial Inc (ALLY)

BUY. 12-month probability-weighted target $46 (+22% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 87% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

ALLYEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: BUY · Fair value vs price +13.4%

Equity Research

Raymond James Financial Inc. (RJF)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $152 (-4% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 88% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

RJFEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price +11.1%

Equity Research

American Express Company (AXP)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $343 (+11% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 66% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

AXPEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price +8.9%

Equity Research

SLM Corp (SLM)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $25 (+10% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 88% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

SLMEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price +8.3%

Equity Research

Houlihan Lokey Inc (HLI)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $139 (+7% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 89% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

HLIEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price +5.9%

Equity Research

Block, Inc (XYZ)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $77 (+0% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 59% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

XYZEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price +4.7%

Equity Research

Synchrony Financial (SYF)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $75 (+3% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 88% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

SYFEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price +4.3%

Equity Research

Shift4 Payments Inc (FOUR)

BUY. 12-month probability-weighted target $51 (+28% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 51% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

FOUREquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: BUY · Fair value vs price +4.0%

Equity Research

MarketAxess Holdings Inc (MKTX)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $168 (+2% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 84% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

MKTXEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

11 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price +3.9%

Equity Research

Western Union Co (WU)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $6 (+5% vs spot). Western Union Co (WU) — quantitative single-name research from MCH Analysis.

WUEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

11 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price +0.8%

Equity Research

Charles Schwab Corp (SCHW)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $90 (-7% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 91% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

SCHWEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price -0.7%

Equity Research

Toast Inc (TOST)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $29 (-7% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 50% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

TOSTEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

11 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price -2.7%

Equity Research

Interactive Brokers Group Inc (IBKR)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $85 (-4% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 91% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

IBKREquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price -4.4%

Equity Research

S&P Global Inc (SPGI)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $391 (-4% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 85% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

SPGIEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price -6.2%

Equity Research

Capital One Financial Corporation (COF)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $195 (-2% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 88% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

COFEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price -6.4%

Equity Research

Jack Henry & Associates Inc (JKHY)

SELL. 12-month probability-weighted target $130 (-13% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 69% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

JKHYEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: SELL · Fair value vs price -7.8%

Equity Research

PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL)

SELL. 12-month probability-weighted target $44 (-21% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 55% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

PYPLEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: SELL · Fair value vs price -9.1%

Equity Research

Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $993 (+11% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 79% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

GSEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price -10.4%

Equity Research

Moodys Corporation (MCO)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $450 (-3% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 87% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

MCOEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price -10.5%

Equity Research

Morgan Stanley (MS)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $201 (+6% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 80% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

MSEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price -12.8%

Equity Research

Fidelity National Information Services Inc (FIS)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $38 (+10% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 80% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

FISEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price -12.9%

Equity Research

MSCI Inc (MSCI)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $542 (-4% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 89% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

MSCIEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price -15.6%

Equity Research

Morningstar Inc (MORN)

SELL. 12-month probability-weighted target $170 (-17% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 69% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

MORNEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: SELL · Fair value vs price -16.7%

Equity Research

FactSet Research Systems Inc (FDS)

SELL. 12-month probability-weighted target $232 (-19% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 81% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

FDSEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: SELL · Fair value vs price -17.4%

Equity Research

Global Payments Inc (GPN)

SELL. 12-month probability-weighted target $69 (-16% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 87% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

GPNEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: SELL · Fair value vs price -18.2%

Equity Research

Cboe Global Markets Inc (CBOE)

SELL. 12-month probability-weighted target $232 (-24% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 84% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

CBOEEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: SELL · Fair value vs price -19.2%

Equity Research

Mastercard Inc (MA)

SELL. 12-month probability-weighted target $491 (-17% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 94% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

MAEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: SELL · Fair value vs price -20.7%

Equity Research

Nasdaq Inc (NDAQ)

SELL. 12-month probability-weighted target $80 (-14% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 95% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

NDAQEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: SELL · Fair value vs price -21.9%

Equity Research

Wex Inc (WEX)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $157 (-9% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 78% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

WEXEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price -22.1%

Equity Research

Corpay Inc (CPAY)

SELL. 12-month probability-weighted target $338 (-15% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 85% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

CPAYEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: SELL · Fair value vs price -22.4%

Equity Research

FirstCash Inc (FCFS)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $214 (+0% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 48% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

FCFSEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price -22.9%

Equity Research

Intercontinental Exchange Inc (ICE)

SELL. 12-month probability-weighted target $121 (-23% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 95% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

ICEEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: SELL · Fair value vs price -24.5%

Equity Research

CME Group Inc (CME)

SELL. 12-month probability-weighted target $214 (-24% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 95% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

CMEEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: SELL · Fair value vs price -26.9%

Equity Research

Robinhood Markets (HOOD)

SELL. 12-month probability-weighted target $80 (-27% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 84% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

HOODEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: SELL · Fair value vs price -40.0%

Equity Research

Coinbase Global Inc (COIN)

SELL. 12-month probability-weighted target $114 (-37% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 56% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

COINEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: SELL · Fair value vs price -48.6%

Equity Research

Visa Inc. Class A (V)

Rating suspended since 2026-10-02 — under analyst review. The rating, price target and expected return are withheld until the name is re-valued; the research on the report page predates the review.

VEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: N/A