Financials

Property & Casualty Insurance

16 companies under coverage.

Coverage

Property & Casualty Insurance

First American Corporation (FAF)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $70 (+15% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 61% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

FAFEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price +25.1%

Equity Research

Cincinnati Financial Corporation (CINF)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $183 (+12% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 61% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

CINFEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price +24.0%

Equity Research

Old Republic International Corp (ORI)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $41 (+6% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 66% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

ORIEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price +19.7%

Equity Research

The Hanover Insurance Group Inc (THG)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $221 (+1% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 57% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

THGEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price +16.3%

Equity Research

Hartford Financial Services Group (HIG)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $135 (+5% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 52% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

HIGEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price +14.1%

Equity Research

Selective Insurance Group, Inc. (SIGI)

BUY. 12-month probability-weighted target $96 (+14% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 64% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

SIGIEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: BUY · Fair value vs price +11.1%

Equity Research

Fidelity National Financial Inc (FNF)

BUY. 12-month probability-weighted target $51 (+31% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 62% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

FNFEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: BUY · Fair value vs price +11.0%

Equity Research

Progressive Corp (PGR)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $212 (-2% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 52% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

PGREquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price +10.2%

Equity Research

RLI Corp (RLI)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $62 (+11% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 50% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

RLIEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price +5.5%

Equity Research

Kinsale Capital Group Inc (KNSL)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $354 (+5% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 73% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

KNSLEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price +2.1%

Equity Research

Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $96 (+0% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 57% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

ACGLEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price -0.4%

Equity Research

Chubb Ltd (CB)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $329 (-3% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 60% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

CBEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price -0.7%

Equity Research

The Allstate Corporation (ALL)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $230 (+0% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 48% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

ALLEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price -1.6%

Equity Research

Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $70 (+0% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 90% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

AGOEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

11 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price -4.3%

Equity Research

W. R. Berkley Corp (WRB)

HOLD. 12-month probability-weighted target $68 (-6% vs spot). Gross Margin explains 51% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

WRBEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: HOLD · Fair value vs price -5.5%

Equity Research

The Travelers Companies Inc (TRV)

SELL. 12-month probability-weighted target $313 (-15% vs spot). P/E Multiple explains 52% of Monte Carlo outcome variance.

TRVEquity ResearchMonte Carlo

10 October 2026Rating: SELL · Fair value vs price -12.6%