Coeur Mining Inc (CDE)

Investment Committee Summary

Investment Thesis

At $20.66 (9 September 2026) Coeur Mining is valued as what it is in this framework — a price-taking metals producer whose earnings are a leveraged function of the metal price rather than of anything management controls. The name runs in the Materials — Metals cluster, where the house view spans Metals Downcycle — China / Demand Reset, Mid-Cycle — Normalised Prices and Electrification / Tight-Supply Upcycle, and the base case sits in the middle of that range: normalised prices, mine supply meeting demand, and by-product credits doing real work behind an operating margin of 55%. Probability-weighted value across the scenario tree is $16.40 and the blended anchor $16.29 — a gap of -21% that leaves the shares trading rich to the anchor set. SELL follows, because the upcycle state is genuinely valuable but the tree gives the downside states more combined weight than the upside states. Capital intensity is high and there is no dividend, so the equity return depends entirely on the price deck and on delivery against the capital programme. The single most damaging risk is a demand reset that lands while capital is committed, since a price-taker mid-build has no lever left to pull.

Narrative drafted 2026-08-16 by claude-opus-5 under supervision; reviewed by Marinus 2026-08-16.

The dashboard below is the whole argument on one page: spot ($20.66) against each valuation anchor, the scenario tree, technicals and the options-implied move.

Anti-Thesis (The Real Bear Case)

The bear case is straightforward and does not require a global recession. A price-taking miner earns an operating margin of 55% only while the price deck holds; the same operating leverage that produces that margin works in reverse, and cost inflation in labour, energy and consumables does not reverse when the metal price does. If Chinese and global industrial demand resets while supply approved during the last upcycle arrives on schedule, prices fall through the incentive level and the marginal tonne becomes loss-making. Capital already committed cannot be recalled, so free cash flow turns negative precisely when the equity market stops funding development. There is no dividend to cushion the holder and no contracted revenue to smooth the cycle. That is the structural state in the tree, and its target sits below the 52-week low — a repricing through the range rather than a drawdown within it.

Key Debate

P/E Multiple explains 76% of Monte Carlo outcome variance — i.e. value is set by the multiple the market will pay, a rate/sentiment regime bet as much as an earnings bet.

What the Market Is Pricing In

At the current price, the market pays 16.6× consensus forward EPS, vs the house DCF terminal 8.0×. The house DCF sits 18% below spot, so the market is pricing in more than the house case — roughly 3.1pp of revenue CAGR.

Variant perception: the house view is below-consensus, and the thesis is primarily growth-driven.

Historical-range cross-check: 52-week range $10.91–$27.74, centre $17.40 (-16% vs spot); spot sits at the 58th percentile of the range. Low-weight mean-reversion cross-check, not a fundamental anchor.

Scenario Analysis

The scenario tree spans a structural 'Structural — Copper Demand Reset / China' downside ($4.92) to a 'Spike — Supply-Constrained Super-Cycle' bull case ($36.51); the probability-weighted blend (PWEV $16.40) is -21% versus spot.

Share-count charge: none applied. The probability-weighted value above is the gross per-share figure — no annual dilution is deducted — stock-based compensation runs at 0.7% of revenue; free cash flow net of SBC is $0.65B. SBC is therefore disclosed, not charged: read the per-share figures as before dilution.

Scenario rationale — the driver path behind every target:

• Structural — Copper Demand Reset / China (22%, $4.92). Structural impairment — demand reset / metal-price downcycle: earnings AND the multiple compress together. Target sits below the 52-week low by construction.
• Downturn — Cyclical Price Drop (18%, $9.21). Cyclical downturn — realised metal price × mined volume vs unit cash cost + supply growth weakens for 1–2 years before normalising.
• Base — Mid-Cycle Copper (32%, $16.10). Mid-cycle — normalised realised metal price × mined volume vs unit cash cost + supply growth; disciplined capital allocation; steady returns.
• Upcycle — Electrification Deficit (20%, $27.94). Upside — supply deficit + metal-price upcycle lifts earnings above mid-cycle; the multiple expands modestly.
• Spike — Supply-Constrained Super-Cycle (8%, $36.51). Upside tail — sustained tight conditions or a structural re-rate on supply deficit + metal-price upcycle.

Valuation Triangulation

Three weighted anchors — an intrinsic dcf, a scenario-weighted pwev and a monte carlo median (student-t + regime switching) — read them with their basis in mind. The Monte Carlo, the DCF terminal and any peer re-rate key off a market multiple, so they are not fully independent; only discounted cash flows themselves are genuinely multiple-free. The discipline is to read the spread and weight the cash-based view, not to treat three numbers as three independent votes.

The house blend DECLARES five anchor weights — DCF 35%, scenario PWEV 25%, Monte Carlo 15%, sum-of-parts 15%, peer re-rate 10%. For this name sum-of-parts, peer P/E re-rate are not computed, so 25% of the declared weight is redistributed across the anchors that exist — which is why the weights above differ from the declared ones. The fair value is unaffected by this disclosure; the blend has always worked this way.

Monte Carlo — the outcome distribution

10,000 paths, Student-t shocks (fat tails) with a regime-switching overlay. The median lands at $14.79 and 22% of paths finish above spot. The variance decomposition shows the p/e multiple is the dominant swing factor (76% of variance). Value is a multiple bet: fundamentals move the answer far less than the rating does.

DCF — the cash-flow anchor

Independent of the market multiple: a 5-year path, WACC 10.0%, 8.0x terminal FCF multiple → $16.84. This anchor is deliberately the heaviest (47%): it is the valuation least hostage to the current multiple regime.

Peer benchmarking — relative value

Against the peer cohort the engine carries no peer-implied price for this name — no forward-EPS basis at the peer step, and no revenue basis either — so the cohort is shown for context only. A premium is only justified by superior growth/margins; otherwise it is multiple risk. Excluded from the weighted blend — shown only as a market cross-check.

Across all anchors the spread is 13% of the median — tight (the methods corroborate one another).

Sensitivity

DCF/share — WACC × terminal multiple

DCF/share — revenue CAGR Δ × op-margin Δ

Tornado — DCF/share swing by driver (widest first)

Company lever — SoP/share vs Mined Metals (base + precious) multiple (AI re-rating) (base 10.0x)

Risk / Reward & Margin of Safety

That ratio compares triangulated upside against the probability-weighted bear target, not the extreme tail; with a leg missing it is withheld rather than computed from a magnitude. Bull case (Spike — Supply-Constrained Super-Cycle): $36.51.

Company Overview & Business Model

Coeur Mining Inc — BASIC MATERIALS · GOLD. Coeur Mining, Inc. explores, develops, produces and sells precious metals in the United States, Canada and Mexico. The company is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

How it makes money.

Revenue-Segment Breakdown

The company-specific drivers behind the valuation — each segment carries its own growth, margin, multiple and capex intensity. (Tags: FACT reported · ESTIMATE from disclosures · INFERENCE judgment.)

Named Exposures

Demand & pricing cycle (FACT/ESTIMATE)

Capital intensity & shareholder returns (ESTIMATE)

Structural risk vs optionality (INFERENCE)

Industry Context — Materials — Metals

This name sits in the Materials — Metals cluster as a mined metals (base + precious) name. copper price + China/global growth + electrification demand vs mine supply. Its scenarios are not guessed in isolation — they inherit a single, shared view of the cluster's driver cycle, so the names that depend on the same event are mutually consistent.

Value chain: RS (steel & aluminum (mill + downstream)) · CDE (mined metals (base + precious)) · AA (steel & aluminum (mill + downstream)) · HL (mined metals (base + precious)) · MP (mined metals (base + precious)) · CMC (steel & aluminum (mill + downstream)) · CLF (steel & aluminum (mill + downstream))

Mapping note: name-level 'Structural — Copper Demand Reset / China' (22%) + 'Downturn — Cyclical Price Drop' (18%) map to cluster Metals Downcycle — China / Demand Reset (40%); name-level 'Upcycle — Electrification Deficit' (20%) + 'Spike — Supply-Constrained Super-Cycle' (8%) map to cluster Electrification / Tight-Supply Upcycle (28%) — the cluster row is the SUM of the mapped scenario probabilities, not a different estimate.

On the cluster's key downside — Metals Downcycle — China / Demand Reset — this name implies 40% vs the cluster house view of 40% (in line with the house). The cluster's full cross-stock reconciliation governs that the names which ride the same capex cycle assign it comparable odds.

Structure: Shared State — The metals cycle is the shared macro driver. Driver — industrial-metals price cycle (copper, steel) + China / electrification. Dispersion — Members differ by cyclicality (quality compounders vs deep cyclicals).

Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Balance-sheet data as of 2025-12-31 (Alpha Vantage).

Capital Allocation

Free-Cash-Flow Quality

Accounting quality: SBC 1% of revenue; cash conversion (OCF/NI) 151% — cash-backed.

Earnings-Call Disconfirmation & Sentiment

Derived signals from the MCH market-data store (Alpha Vantage transcripts + news). Quantitative tone only — a disconfirmation flag, not a substitute for reading the call.

Management vs analyst tone (2026Q1): management +0.34 vs analyst floor +0.06 → delta +0.28 (n=36 mgmt / 21 Q&A; 24th pctile across the S&P book, z -0.8).

Flag: TYPICAL — management-vs-analyst tone within the normal cross-sectional range.

News (last 365d, 471 articles): avg ticker sentiment +0.20 (bullish 36% / bearish 6%)

Consensus & Market Expectations

_Consensus figures: Alpha Vantage sell-side aggregates. Where the house view sits materially above or below the street, the divergence is itself a datum — see the thesis.

Forecast Track Record

• EPS surprise: beat 38% of the last 8 quarters; average surprise +148.8%.
• Prior-forecast backtest (20 snapshots, 2026-07-21→2026-09-03): directional hit-rate 65%; mean predicted +0.3% vs realised +16.9%. Disconfirming track record is reported, not suppressed.

Catalyst Timeline

4 catalysts in the next 90 days (of 12 tracked). Importance 1–3; confidence 0–1.

_Sources: extended.catalysts, data/catalysts/.json, data/catalysts/macro.json, AV DIVIDENDS, opex 3rd-Friday calc.

Decision Rules (Machine-Checked)

Stance: Hold — 0 bullish / 1 bearish / 0 caution rules triggered of 6 evaluable (0 lacked data).

Machine-checked rules over disclosed inputs. The authored falsification triggers elsewhere in this report are analyst judgment and are NOT evaluated here. The stance is a portfolio-management signal and does not modify the published research rating.

Reasons the Thesis Could Fail (Falsifiable)

Pre-registered signals that would break the thesis — each polices a specific scenario boundary and is checked at every earnings update:

• FY revenue ($B) < 3.9 (next reported fiscal year). (rationale withheld pending re-authoring — frozen figure or verdict)
• Probability-weighted fair value (PWEV) at the next re-run < 20.66 (any scheduled re-run). (rationale withheld pending re-authoring — frozen figure or verdict)
• Share price (close) < 4.92 (5 consecutive sessions). (rationale withheld pending re-authoring — frozen figure or verdict)

Fact / Inference / Speculation

• FACT: Spot $20.66; 52-week range $10.91–$27.74; engine rating SELL; house target $16.40 (-21%). (source: Alpha Vantage 2026-09-08, 9 September 2026)
• INFERENCE: Triangulated FV $16.29 (-21% vs spot · triangulated FV); the rating tracks the Monte-Carlo + scenario-PWEV core; the cash-flow anchor sits above the multiple-discipline core.
• SPECULATION: At current prices the embedded bet is that the market keeps paying the current multiple through the capex cycle — a regime call the engine cannot verify from fundamentals alone.

Conviction Score

Research Conviction measures the strength and quality of the research setup — input coverage, financial quality, valuation support, process agreement. It is NOT the probability that the recommendation succeeds; the forecast track record section is the evidence on that.

64.7/100 (confidence band 53.6–75.7), 73rd percentile of 893 covered names (as of 2026-09-08). Weighted composite under config ros-1.20.0 — every component and its inputs below.

Score history: 64.3 → 64.5 → 64.6 → 65.1 → 64.3 → 64.1 → 64.4 → 64.2.

Probability-Weighted Return Profile

Horizon: 1 year — at this horizon CAGR equals total return by definition. Expected values are the probability-weighted sums over the full scenario set below.

The gross expected return is the probability-weighted scenario return (it reconciles to the gross PWEV); the diluted figure applies the SBC share-count charge and matches the published PWEV-based target.

Expected Alpha

Expected return minus the return this name is REQUIRED to deliver for its risk (1-year horizon). Constants are pre-registered (preregistered-static (amendment #2, 2026-07-29); not fitted to MCH outcomes).

A negative expected alpha does not change the rating — it says the expected return does not clear the risk-adjusted hurdle at today's price. Rating mechanics are unchanged by this section.

Probability Cross-Checks

Not authoritative. The scenario probabilities in this report are AUTHORED — a judgement about how the world might go, not a measurement. Nothing below modifies them, the target, the rating or any position size. These checks ask only whether anything outside our own model agrees with us; where it does not, that is information for the reader, not a correction we have quietly applied.

Authored set: 5 scenarios, probabilities summing to 1.0, mean target $16.4.

Factor Exposures

Cross-sectional percentiles over 893 covered names (style scores sector-demeaned; thematic = return-beta to the theme's proxy ETF). 50 = estate median.

Market interaction: correlation vs SPY +0.40, vs QQQ +0.40 (trailing ~1y daily returns).

Options Intelligence

Preferred structure: Put Debit Spread. The selector reads the equity view (direction) and the volatility surface — nothing here re-prices the chain.

• bearish with cheap options — buy defined-risk downside
• Direction bearish from the overlay conviction/rating (read-only input).
• IV/RV at the 29th percentile of the cross-section → low vol bucket. This is the measure that selects the structure above: it ranks how rich this name's implied vol is against its own realised vol, relative to other names.
• Reported alongside and not used to select: this name's own ATM IV sits at the 58th percentile of its own month-end history (decile 6). The two measures disagree here — vol is high for this name by its own history while its options are not unusually rich against its realised vol. Where they diverge, the cross-sectional measure is the one acting.

IV term structure (flat, slope +1.0pp): 31-DTE 69% · 101-DTE 69% · 374-DTE 70%

Economics copied verbatim from the options overlay (priced from the listed chain (EOD marks)); the selector does not re-price.

Alternatives: Protective Put. IV rank shown via the name's own monthly IV history (advisory); structure selected on the cross-sectional IV/RV percentile. Model output for research and education only — not individualised investment advice. Position-sizing and stance figures are mechanical outputs of the disclosed rules and inputs; they do not consider any person's objectives, financial situation, or tax status.

Position Sizing Framework

research rating is SELL-tier — the model carries no long position.

Model output for research and education only — not individualised investment advice. Position-sizing and stance figures are mechanical outputs of the disclosed rules and inputs; they do not consider any person's objectives, financial situation, or tax status.

Options Overlay

A defined-risk way to express the SELL equity view. Chain as of 2026-09-08 — end-of-day marks — indicative, not executable quotes.

Market signals — ATM IV 68.8% (moderate regime) · expected move ±15.4% (2026-10-09) · put/call OI 0.38 · ATM Δ 0.56 / Θ -0.03 / ν 0.02. Direction: SHORT/HEDGE (implied return -21.2% to triangulated fair value $16.29).

Bear Put Spread (Bearish) — Long 20 P / Short 17.5 P · 2027-03-19 · net debit $1.17 · max profit $1.33 · breakeven $18.82 · RoR 113.0% · max loss $1.17 · priced from the listed chain (EOD marks)

Defined-risk downside expression: the debit caps the loss, with the position gaining as the stock falls toward the lower strike — a way to act on a bearish view without shorting stock. Illustrative — no outcome is implied or guaranteed.

Protective Put (if held) (Hedge) — Long 20 P · 2027-03-19 · premium $3.2 · floor -3.0% · max loss $3.20 · priced from the listed chain (EOD marks)

Insurance for an existing holding — a known premium buys a floor while leaving the upside intact. A way to hold through a binary event or volatility with defined downside.

Protective Collar (if held) (Hedge) — Long 17.5 P / Short 22.5 C · 2027-03-19 · net $1.47 · floor -15.0% · cap +9.0% · priced from the listed chain (EOD marks)

For a holder who wants to stay invested but cap risk: the sold call funds most of the protective put, fencing the position into a band — a way to ride out a de-rating without selling.

Indicative options structures — a defined-risk expression of the equity view, model-and-market illustrated from the last-close chain. NOT personalised advice or an executable quote; premiums, IV and greeks move intraday. Options carry the risk of total loss of premium. Not a registered financial adviser.

Rating Bridge

Rating = SELL because:

• Probability-weighted scenario value implies -21% vs spot
• Monte Carlo median implies -28% vs spot
• DCF fair value implies -18% vs spot — but this is terminal-value sensitive (exit-multiple $16.84 vs Gordon $23.67, 41% apart), so it carries less weight
• Bear case (Structural — Copper Demand Reset / China) downside is -76% vs spot
• Net: the valuation anchor itself sits 21.2% below spot, so there is no reward leg to weigh against the bear case and the reward-to-risk ratio is withheld rather than computed off a negative upside. The rating warrants a Sell.

Model Appendix

DCF — line items

FCF is bridged: NOPAT + D&A − Capex − ΔNWC (capex intensity 14% of revenue, weighted from the segments) — not a single conversion fudge.

WACC 10.0% · Σ PV(FCF) $7B + PV(terminal) $10B = EV $17B; + net cash $0.3B → equity $17B ÷ diluted shares $1.04B = $16.84/share (exit-multiple terminal).

• Gordon terminal at 2.5% → $23.67/share — a genuinely non-multiple, cash-based cross-check; the exit-multiple and Gordon values bracket the terminal-value risk.
• Incremental ROIC on the forecast capex ≈ 8% vs WACC 10.0% → below WACC — the incremental build is value-dilutive.

Weighted fair-value math

Assumption Register

Sensitivity-ranked drivers (widest fair-value swing first): Terminal × ±15% (3.0); Revenue CAGR ±3pp (3.0); Op margin ±3pp (2.0); Capex intensity ±15% (2.0); WACC ±1pp (1.0).

Inputs, Sources & Confidence

Every load-bearing input, labelled by type and confidence. (reported fact · company guidance · consensus estimate · market data · house estimate · inference.)

Research Provenance

Load-Bearing Assumptions

DCF: WACC 10.0%, terminal multiple 8×, FY+5 revenue $6B. Triangulation leans 47% on DCF, 33% on PWEV, 20% on the Monte Carlo median.