MCH Analysis · Research
Graph 1 of 10 · Week of 3 Oct 2026AI & Themes

Semis' long lead over the S&P 500 looks stretched

Since January 2006 a dollar in SMH has grown to 5.2 times a dollar in SPY, on total return. The ratio is +17% against its 200-day average, percentile 94, and 10% below its 22 Jun 2026 peak.

Prices through 1 Oct 2026Universe SMH and SPY
SMH / SPY ratio
516
Jan 2006 = 100; +61% over the last year
Ratio vs its 200-day average
+17%
percentile 94 since 2006
Ratio below its peak
-10%
peak 22 Jun 2026
Deepest relative drawdown
-40%
8 Dec 2008

Semiconductors relative to the S&P 500

SMH / SPY, total return, January 2006 = 100, log scale, weekly

Source MCH research warehouse, daily adjusted closes (Alpha Vantage)
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Relative drawdown

% below the ratio's running peak, weekly

Source MCH research warehouse, daily adjusted closes (Alpha Vantage)
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What it means · inference

  • Relative drawdowns up to 40% occurred within the uptrend
  • More of the lead rests on recent gains
  • Semis price the AI build-out, not its returns

For investors · general, not personal financial advice

  • Semis carry concentrated exposure to AI capex budgets
  • A capex disappointment would hit relative performance hardest

What would change it

  • The ratio falling below its 200-day average
  • New ratio highs while chip inventory days keep rising

Method

  • What is measured: Ratio of SMH (semiconductor ETF) to SPY total-return prices, indexed to 100 in January 2006, daily through 1 Oct 2026; extension = ratio versus its own 200-day average.
  • Ratio of vendor adjusted closes (dividends and splits included). The ETF's holdings and index have changed over the window; the vendor series is used as provided.
  • Extension = ratio / its 200-day simple moving average − 1; percentile against every day since 2006.

Sources

  • MCH research warehouse, daily adjusted closes (Alpha Vantage); through 1 Oct 2026.

Universe

Names in the published feed886
Excluded: held, suspended, withdrawn, deferred, deal-pending or pending review54
Reader-safe universe832
Benchmarks only (no single names): SMH and SPY2

Names whose rating is held, suspended, withdrawn, deferred or under a pending deal are excluded from every exhibit, so no held output appears here.

General and impersonal investment research. Not personal financial advice. Forecasts, valuations and model outputs are estimates and may be wrong. See Investment Disclaimer.

MCH Analysis is a general investment-research publication of MCH Advisory (Pty) Ltd. It is not personal financial advice and does not take your circumstances into account. MCH is not a licensed financial services provider or a registered investment adviser. Past performance, whether actual or simulated, does not predict future results. Subscriber Agreement | Privacy and Cookie Notice | Research Governance Policies