Utility capex is growing faster than its post-2015 average
Capital spending across 42 utilities reached $220bn over the last four quarters, +25% on a year earlier. That compares with $96bn at end-2015 and average growth of 8% a year since.
Utility capital spending, trailing twelve months
$bn, sum of 42 names
Growth rate
TTM capex, % change on a year earlier
What it means · inference
- Spending accelerated after 2022; data centres are one candidate
- Capex is 144% of operating cash flow: externally funded
- Data cannot separate data centres from grid and renewables
For investors · general, not personal financial advice
- Payback depends on regulators allowing returns on rate base
- Funding costs matter more as capex outruns cash flow
- Treat data-centre demand as a hypothesis, not a proven driver
What would change it
- Year-on-year growth falling below the long-run average
- Rate-case outcomes that cap allowed returns
Method
- What is measured: Trailing-twelve-month capital expenditure summed across 42 Utilities-sector names in the reader-safe universe that report every quarter, quarterly since 2015, with year-on-year growth; latest quarter 2026 Q2.
- Capital expenditure as reported in the cash-flow statement (absolute value), quarterly, summed over four calendar-aligned quarters per name, then across names.
- Balanced panel: 42 of 43 Utilities names with capex in every quarter from 2014 Q1, so the sum is not inflated by names entering the data.
- Data cleaning: 9 name-quarters (7 names) more than 2.5 times, or less than 0.4 times, the name's centred nine-quarter median were treated as vendor errors (for example a year-to-date figure in a single quarter) and replaced by that median. Without this step one company's mis-stated latest quarter alone would add several points to the growth rate.
- Survivor bias: today's utilities only; utilities acquired or merged away since 2015 are missing.
Sources
- MCH research warehouse, quarterly statements (Alpha Vantage, as restated).
- GICS sectors from the MCH per-name pages.
Universe
| Names in the published feed | 886 |
| Excluded: held, suspended, withdrawn, deferred, deal-pending or pending review | 54 |
| Reader-safe universe | 832 |
| Dropped: a missing quarter of capex since 2014 | 1 |
| Used in this exhibit | 42 |
Names whose rating is held, suspended, withdrawn, deferred or under a pending deal are excluded from every exhibit, so no held output appears here.
General and impersonal investment research. Not personal financial advice. Forecasts, valuations and model outputs are estimates and may be wrong. See Investment Disclaimer.
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