The market explains less of stock moves than any year since 2015
Over the last year the market explained a median 7% of a stock's daily moves, against a 28% average for 2015-2025. For 90% of names, the market drove under a quarter of daily moves.
How much of each sector's daily moves is the market?
Median R² against SPY, last 252 sessions
Book median R² by calendar year, and the latest 252 sessions
Median across names of R² against SPY
Survivor bias: history is computed on today's reader-safe universe (828 names with prices), so names that left the market earlier are missing.
What it means · inference
- Company news, not the index, drives most moves
- Diversification across names does more work than usual
- Low market link is not the same as low risk
For investors · general, not personal financial advice
- Single-stock research matters more than market timing
- Index hedges offset less of a stock's risk
What would change it
- A stress episode lifting market link towards 50% (2020)
- Rate or oil shocks moving whole sectors together
Method
- What is measured: R² of daily returns regressed on SPY over the 252 sessions from 1 Oct 2025 to 1 Oct 2026: the share of each name's daily variance explained by the market, sector medians, 821 reader-safe names.
- Ordinary least-squares regression of daily simple returns (adjusted closes) on SPY's, one regression per name; R² = squared correlation. Names need 240+ paired sessions.
- One-year window on today's universe; names that left the market are not in it.
Sources
- MCH research warehouse, daily adjusted closes (Alpha Vantage); through 1 Oct 2026.
- GICS sectors from the MCH per-name pages.
Universe
| Names in the published feed | 886 |
| Excluded: held, suspended, withdrawn, deferred, deal-pending or pending review | 58 |
| Reader-safe universe | 828 |
| Dropped: fewer than 240 sessions of returns | 7 |
| Used in this exhibit | 821 |
Names whose rating is held, suspended, withdrawn, deferred or under a pending deal are excluded from every exhibit, so no held output appears here.
General and impersonal investment research. Not personal financial advice. Forecasts, valuations and model outputs are estimates and may be wrong. See Investment Disclaimer.
MCH Analysis is a general investment-research publication of MCH Advisory (Pty) Ltd. It is not personal financial advice and does not take your circumstances into account. MCH is not a licensed financial services provider or a registered investment adviser. Past performance, whether actual or simulated, does not predict future results. Subscriber Agreement | Privacy and Cookie Notice | Research Governance Policies