The 30-year Treasury yield is at its highest since 2002
The 30-year Treasury yields 5.64%, higher than on 94% of trading days since 2000. That is +91bp on a year ago, against a 4.19% median since 2000.
The 30-year Treasury yield
%, weekly since 2000
Where today sits in the distribution
Number of trading days at each yield level since 2000, 0.25-point buckets
What it means · inference
- Discount rates for long-duration assets are unusually high
- Growth stocks' distant cash flows are worth less
- Bonds compete harder with equity earnings yields
For investors · general, not personal financial advice
- Long bonds now pay more than on 94% of days
- Long-duration growth valuations face a higher hurdle
- Rate-sensitive sectors stay exposed to further rises
What would change it
- A fall back towards the 4.19% median
- A break above the 6.75% post-2000 high
Method
- What is measured: US 30-year constant-maturity Treasury yield, weekly since January 2000 (daily data from 1977), through 30 Sep 2026, with its percentile in that history.
- Daily constant-maturity yield; the chart samples Friday values, percentiles use every trading day.
- The longest gap between observations in the series is 5 calendar days.
Sources
- MCH research warehouse, US macro series (Alpha Vantage economic indicators); through 30 Sep 2026.
Universe
| Names in the published feed | 886 |
| Excluded: held, suspended, withdrawn, deferred, deal-pending or pending review | 58 |
| Reader-safe universe | 828 |
| Used in this exhibit | 0 |
Macro exhibit: no single-name data is used, so the reader-safe universe does not enter it.
General and impersonal investment research. Not personal financial advice. Forecasts, valuations and model outputs are estimates and may be wrong. See Investment Disclaimer.
MCH Analysis is a general investment-research publication of MCH Advisory (Pty) Ltd. It is not personal financial advice and does not take your circumstances into account. MCH is not a licensed financial services provider or a registered investment adviser. Past performance, whether actual or simulated, does not predict future results. Subscriber Agreement | Privacy and Cookie Notice | Research Governance Policies