Hyperscaler capex is still rising: $566bn, 8.0 times 2019
Combined capex of MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, META, ORCL was $566bn over the last four quarters, +81% on a year earlier. That is 8.0 times the $71bn of 2019, with ORCL growing fastest at +162%.
Quarterly capital expenditure
$bn per fiscal quarter; Oracle's quarters end in Feb, May, Aug and Nov
Cash capital expenditure as reported. Assets obtained under finance leases do not pass through this line, so for heavy lease users it understates total investment.
What it means · inference
- A bet that AI and cloud demand will repay capacity
- The bill arrives later as rising depreciation
- Spending is concentrated in a handful of budgets
For investors · general, not personal financial advice
- Chip, power and data-centre suppliers depend on continued growth
- A flattening, not just a fall, would matter
What would change it
- Two quarters of flat or lower combined capex
- A guidance cut from any one company
Method
- What is measured: Quarterly capital expenditure (cash-flow statement) of MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, META, ORCL, January 2018 to each company's latest reported quarter (31 May 2026 to 30 Jun 2026).
- Capital expenditure = Alpha Vantage capitalExpenditures (reported as a positive outflow) per fiscal quarter. Four-quarter totals combine each company's latest four quarters; Oracle's fiscal quarters are mapped to the calendar quarter in which they end.
- All five names are in the reader-safe universe.
Sources
- MCH research warehouse, quarterly statements (Alpha Vantage, as restated).
Universe
| Names in the published feed | 886 |
| Excluded: held, suspended, withdrawn, deferred, deal-pending or pending review | 54 |
| Reader-safe universe | 832 |
| Selected: the hyperscaler group named above | 5 |
| Used in this exhibit | 5 |
Names whose rating is held, suspended, withdrawn, deferred or under a pending deal are excluded from every exhibit, so no held output appears here.
General and impersonal investment research. Not personal financial advice. Forecasts, valuations and model outputs are estimates and may be wrong. See Investment Disclaimer.
MCH Analysis is a general investment-research publication of MCH Advisory (Pty) Ltd. It is not personal financial advice and does not take your circumstances into account. MCH is not a licensed financial services provider or a registered investment adviser. Past performance, whether actual or simulated, does not predict future results. Subscriber Agreement | Privacy and Cookie Notice | Research Governance Policies