MCH Analysis · Research
Graph 6 of 10 · Week of 3 Oct 2026Macro & Cross-Asset

A stronger dollar is a translation headwind for multinationals

The dollar fund UUP rose 8.9% over 12 months, the 84th percentile of 12-month changes since 2008, and is +7.1% year to date. It sits 0.0% below its Oct 2026 peak and 4.4% above its 200-day average.

Prices through 1 Oct 2026Universe One ETF (UUP)
UUP, 12 months
+8.9%
84th percentile of 12-month changes since 2008
Year to date
+7.1%
vs its peak
+0.0%
Peak 1 Oct 2026
vs 200-day average
+4.4%

The dollar: UUP total return

Dividend-adjusted close, $, weekly

Source MCH research warehouse, daily dividend-adjusted ETF closes (Alpha Vantage)
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Twelve-month change

% change over 252 sessions, weekly

Source MCH research warehouse, daily dividend-adjusted ETF closes (Alpha Vantage)
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What it means · inference

  • Foreign revenue is worth less in dollars
  • The 12-month move roughly scales the translation effect
  • Above its 200-day average: the trend is up

For investors · general, not personal financial advice

  • Multinationals' reported earnings face a currency headwind
  • Domestic-revenue companies are shielded from translation effects

What would change it

  • A sustained move below its 200-day average (27.73)
  • The 12-month change reversing through zero

Method

  • What is measured: Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish fund (UUP), dividend-adjusted close, weekly since Mar 2007, through 1 Oct 2026; a rising line means a stronger dollar against the fund's currency basket.
  • Dividend-adjusted closes: the fund's distributions are reinvested, so the series is the fund's total return rather than a currency index level.
  • Percentile of the trailing 252-session change, across all days since Feb 2008.
  • ETF prices only; the reader-safe single-name universe does not enter this exhibit.

Sources

  • MCH research warehouse, daily dividend-adjusted ETF closes (Alpha Vantage); through 1 Oct 2026.

Universe

Names in the published feed886
Excluded: held, suspended, withdrawn, deferred, deal-pending or pending review54
Reader-safe universe832
Used in this exhibit0

ETF exhibit: no single-name data is used, so the reader-safe universe does not enter it.

General and impersonal investment research. Not personal financial advice. Forecasts, valuations and model outputs are estimates and may be wrong. See Investment Disclaimer.

MCH Analysis is a general investment-research publication of MCH Advisory (Pty) Ltd. It is not personal financial advice and does not take your circumstances into account. MCH is not a licensed financial services provider or a registered investment adviser. Past performance, whether actual or simulated, does not predict future results. Subscriber Agreement | Privacy and Cookie Notice | Research Governance Policies