Over the last eight quarters a miss cost a median 2.1% around the report; a beat earned +0.8%
Median price move from the close before the report date to the close one session after it, for EPS beats and misses, by calendar quarter of the report, 2024 Q4 to 2026 Q3 (latest quarter to 3 Sep 2026); reader-safe companies.
Price reaction to beats and misses
Median % move, close before the report to close one session after
Latest quarter: reports to 3 Sep 2026, prices to 10 Sep 2026. Reports exactly in line are left out.
What it shows · fact
Across 4987 beats and 1265 misses in the last eight quarters, the median beat moved +0.8% and the median miss -2.1% from the close before the report to the close one session after. Misses moved more than beats in 8 of 8 quarters.
45% of beats were followed by a fall. The median SPY move over the same windows was +0.3%, so market drift explains little of the gap.
Why it matters · inference
Misses are punished 2.6 times as hard as beats are rewarded: a beat is the expected outcome and is largely priced in, while a miss is news.
With 45% of beats still followed by a fall, expectations often sit above the published consensus: the "whisper number" is the real bar.
What would change this read
A narrowing of the miss penalty would suggest lower expectations are already in prices, which is typical after a de-rating.
A season in which beats earn more than misses cost would mark a change in how demanding the market is.
Method
- Window: adjusted close on the last session before the report date to the adjusted close on the first session after it, so pre-open and after-close reports are both captured.
- Beat / miss = positive / negative EPS surprise (adjusted EPS vs consensus). Raw returns: the market move over the same window is shown as a KPI, not subtracted.
- Survivor bias: history is computed on today's reader-safe universe (833 names), so companies that left the market earlier are missing and the earlier years describe today's survivors, not the market as it was.
Sources
- MCH research warehouse, quarterly earnings reports (Alpha Vantage: reported vs estimated EPS).
- MCH research warehouse, daily adjusted closes (Alpha Vantage); prices through 10 Sep 2026.
Universe
| Names in the published feed | 886 |
| Excluded: held, suspended, withdrawn, deferred, deal-pending or pending review | 53 |
| Reader-safe universe | 833 |
| Reports in the window with a surprise | 6541 |
| Dropped: no price either side of the report | 1 |
| Dropped: exactly in line | 288 |
| Reports used | 6252 |
| Used in this exhibit | 831 |
Names whose rating is held, suspended, withdrawn, deferred or under a pending deal are excluded from every exhibit, so no held output appears here.
General and impersonal investment research. Not personal financial advice. Forecasts, valuations and model outputs are estimates and may be wrong. See Investment Disclaimer.
MCH Analysis is a general investment-research publication of MCH Advisory (Pty) Ltd. It is not personal financial advice and does not take your circumstances into account. MCH is not a licensed financial services provider or a registered investment adviser. Past performance, whether actual or simulated, does not predict future results. Subscriber Agreement | Privacy and Cookie Notice | Research Governance Policies