5 of 11 sectors are expensive against their own history
Of 11 sectors, 5 trade in the top fifth of their own P/E history since 2010, led by Staples at the 97th percentile. Real Estate is the cheapest against its history, at the 6th percentile.
Median trailing P/E by sector
Quarter-end, shared y-axis; value = latest; highlighted = top fifth of own history
Values above 60x are drawn at 60x for legibility. A sector-month needs at least five profitable names.
Where today sits in each sector's own history
Percentile of the latest median P/E within the sector's monthly history since 2010
What it means · inference
- Expensive sectors have less room to re-rate higher
- Earnings misses would hit those multiples hardest
- Each sector is judged against its own normal
For investors · general, not personal financial advice
- Valuation risk is broad: 5 sectors in their top fifth
- Real Estate offers the most cushion against its past
- Book median P/E 23.5x, 84th percentile since 2010
What would change it
- Earnings growth lowering multiples without price falls
- Index changes shifting sector mix, not sentiment
Method
- What is measured: Median trailing P/E of profitable reader-safe names by GICS sector, month-end from 30 Jun 2010 to 31 Jul 2026, with each sector's latest value ranked against its own monthly history.
- Sector median P/E = 1 / median trailing earnings yield among names with positive earnings that month (loss-makers excluded).
- Percentile = share of the sector's monthly readings since 2010 at or below the latest value.
- Survivor bias: history is computed on today's reader-safe universe (828 names), so companies that left the market earlier are missing and the earlier years describe today's survivors, not the market as it was.
Sources
- MCH research warehouse, monthly factor scores (trailing earnings yield, market cap); monthly through 31 Jul 2026.
- GICS sectors from the MCH per-name pages.
Universe
| Names in the published feed | 886 |
| Excluded: held, suspended, withdrawn, deferred, deal-pending or pending review | 58 |
| Reader-safe universe | 828 |
| Dropped: not in the latest factor snapshot or no earnings yield | 57 |
| Dropped: loss-making in the latest month | 44 |
| Used in this exhibit | 727 |
Names whose rating is held, suspended, withdrawn, deferred or under a pending deal are excluded from every exhibit, so no held output appears here.
General and impersonal investment research. Not personal financial advice. Forecasts, valuations and model outputs are estimates and may be wrong. See Investment Disclaimer.
MCH Analysis is a general investment-research publication of MCH Advisory (Pty) Ltd. It is not personal financial advice and does not take your circumstances into account. MCH is not a licensed financial services provider or a registered investment adviser. Past performance, whether actual or simulated, does not predict future results. Subscriber Agreement | Privacy and Cookie Notice | Research Governance Policies